With the demise of Saddam Hussein, the Iraqi people celebrated the fall of the dictatorship and were hopeful to establish a strong democratic system that allows for inclusive political participation. However, after this month’s parliamentary election, it is apparent that Iraqis are losing hope in the system, a system established by an international coalition that removed Saddam and is bedeviled by a myriad of challenges. The recent protests, in which hundreds were killed, indicate mass discontent with the system and raises the question - is Iraq transitioning to democracy? Elections are held regularly, but other fundamental democratic principles such as freedom of press and religion are largely violated. The first election was held in 2005 with a turnout of 79.6%. The vote was considered free and fair despite the serious political crisis at the time. People voted their representatives into the office with the hope that their quality of life, and economic and political conditions would improve. However, the situation and voter turnout deteriorated. Between 2006 and 2008, civil war broke out. This affected the credibility of the 2010 general elections when voter turnout decreased to 62.4%. After this election, there was a heated constitutional debate among Shiites and Sunnis as to who has the right to create a government. A court ruled in favor of a coalition of Shiite parties. This judgment continues to generate controversy among Arab Sunni citizens. By 2014, most Sunnis boycotted the election process because of actions the government of then-prime minister Nouri al-Maliki took against Sunnis. For instance, then-vice president Tariq al-Hashemi was convicted on terrorism charges and the office of the finance minister was raided. Both were Sunnis. Similarly, some peaceful demonstrators in Sunni areas were killed by government forces. In this election, only 60% voter turnout was recorded. The rise of the Islamic State group (ISIS) created another round of instability in Iraq and beyond, and affected the country’s nascent democracy. In the aftermath of the war against ISIS and other internal crises such as ethnic conflict among different groups (Sunni, Shia, Kurdish), the powers of some militia groups, especially the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), increased. In 2018, voter turnout dramatically shrunk to 44.52%. A large number of votes were secured by the PMF and Sadrists, giving them considerable influence in Iraq’s politics. In 2019, the socio-economic and political situation in Iraq was not promising and Iraqis staged demonstrations demanding the cabinet resign. Early elections were called in response to the protest movement, but turnout in the October 10 vote was an astonishingly low 41.5%. According to the Independent High Electoral Commission, about 18% of votes were spoiled. Many believe this was an act of protest by Iraqis angry and dissatisfied with the political elites and parties. Some parties that dominated the previous parliament were voted out in favor of opposition parties and candidates. For instance, the Fatih list led by PMF leader Hadi al-Amiri went from 47 seats down to 15. This list is affiliated with militias that are supported directly by Iran. Another Shiite party lead by ex-prime minister Haider al-Abadi won 47 seats in the 2018 election, but got just two seats this time. Another interesting outcome was the increase of seats for the Sadr Movement of Muqtada al-Sadr that went from 54 to 72 seats. Another shift in Iraqi politics was the high number of independents, who secured 30 spots in the 329-seat legislature. There are several possible reasons for declining voter turnout. Fundamentally, the political elites have remained in power from north to south and citizens have started to lose confidence in their performance and ability to affect meaningful change. Grass root politics have not been encouraged and voters complained of the closed and non-dynamic style of party leadership. Most candidates were either unpopular with voters or were perceived to be an extension of the existing elite. Corruption has also increased, with most allegations leveled against the political elites. According to ranking by Transparency International 2021, Iraq was the 21st most corrupt country in the world and the general economic condition of the country worsens by the day, despite abundant natural resources such as oil, gas, etc. For instance, the poverty rate in Iraq is high - 24.8% of the population is below the poverty line. Unemployment, according to World Bank, has risen from 12.76% in 2019 to 13.74% in 2020. Life is becoming difficult in the country. Thirdly, the political elites were not able to secure the country. There is still a very high risk of violence, armed conflict, kidnapping, and terrorist attack. Therefore, the people are looking for a government that will improve the security, something they believe the current leaders are unable to provide. It is imperative to recall that a robust election with appreciable voter participation is fundamental to the survival of democracy. The Iraqi people are losing hope in the governing elite and the entire political system. Most Iraqis did not vote because of their perception that the political elite are the same recycled leaders who are not interested in improving the economic, social, and security situation. Until Iraqi political elites focus on the provision of security, better standard of living, and openness in the political sphere, public participation in democracy will continue to wane. To strengthen democracy in Iraq, there is a need for an overhaul in party politics, development of a vibrant civil society, and more awareness among the people. Shakar Ibrahim Mohammed is a writer and researcher covering Iraqi politics. He was an assistant researcher at the University of Sulaimani in Iraq and is currently pursuing a master’s degree in political science in Malaysia.
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