The recent conflict is the latest in a series of tensions following the 2019 ousting of long-serving Bashir. Despite his removal, civilians persistently campaigned for the establishment of a democratic system. For much of its post-independence history, the military has governed Sudan. During his rule, Bashir relied on Dagalo and the RSF as a counterforce to the regular armed forces, hoping that no single armed group would be capable of overthrowing him. Ultimately, this divergence between the army and the RSF has sparked a fresh round of violence in Sudan.
In 2019, al-Burhan and Dagalo signed an agreement with protesters to form a civilian-led government overseen by the Sovereign Council, a joint civilian-military body, with Burhan at its head and Dagalo as his deputy. However, it lasted two years until the military took power for themselves, with Burhan again at the head of the state and Dagalo again his deputy. Since then, the rivalry between Burhan and Dagalo has intensified. Talks to finalize the details of a framework deal to put power back in the hands of civilians have failed, with the battle for supremacy between the two factions tearing Sudan apart.
The recent fighting in Khartoum and other parts of Sudan stems from a fierce power struggle within the country's military leadership. The clashes involve the regular army and the paramilitary RSF. The violence erupted on April 15, 2023 after tensions rose when RSF members were redeployed across the country, seen as a threat by the army. Despite hopes for talks to resolve the situation, they never materialized. The exact instigator of the conflict remains disputed, but it quickly escalated in various areas, resulting in over 400 civilian deaths, in the first week of the clashes, according to the World Health Organization. Since then intense fighting has been ongoing in Khartoum, Omdurman, and Darfur region, leading to increasing numbers of fatalities, numerous injuries, and substantial infrastructure damage.
Internal conflicts in Sudan can impact the political alignments in the Middle East. Different factions involved in the clashes may align themselves with regional powers, affecting alliances and relations in the Middle East. This can have a broader implications for the Middle Eastern politics and the balance of power among the Middle Eastern countries.
To eliminate the risk of spill over effect of the crisis, on May 6, 2023, Saudi and the US-led mediation attempt began, however ceasefire was not materialized. Mediation attempts of ceasing violence in Sudan was not limited to the Saudi and the US-led initiative. The Council of the League of Arab States held a ministerial-level meeting to discuss the situation and the Saudi-American initiative aiming to resolve the crisis. The Council decided to establish an Arab ministerial contact group comprising representatives from Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the Secretary-General of the League. The group's mandate is to engage with the Sudanese parties, as well as relevant regional and international organizations, to facilitate a settlement to the crisis and work towards a comprehensive and sustainable ceasefire. In addition, African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) called for the pre-negotiation and subsequent talks to ensure lasting solutions to the challenges faced by Sudan.
In this context, especially after the Syria’s readmission into Arab League, the Sudan conflict poses a threat for the Middle East since the crisis may divert the Middle Eastern actors towards different directions. In fact, after the Syria’s readmission decision, a threat factor emerges for the formation of a regrouped Arab League. This situation makes both the Arab worlds and the Middle East more vulnerable to different crises in the future.
In the case that the conflict in Sudan escalates and leads to further instability, it could trigger a new wave of refugees seeking safety in neighboring countries and the Middle East. This could strain the resources and stability of those nations, potentially affecting regional dynamics and creating additional challenges for countries in the Middle East. In this context, it should be reminded that Sudan's population is over 45 million. Therefore, mass migrations can be a challenge for the region. On top of this, a change in the Sudan's position on allocation and the utilization of the Nile River may significantly affect Egypt.
The conflict in Sudan has the potential to create power gaps within the country, characterized by the loss of central authority and the emergence of alternative power structures. These power gaps could manifest at regional, security, governance, and economic levels. Regional power gaps may arise as different regions assert autonomy or fall under the control of armed groups. Security power gaps may result from the breakdown of law and order, leading to the rise of militias and criminal networks. Governance power gaps can emerge due to the weakening of state institutions, while economic power gaps can occur through the control of resources.
Clashes in Sudan have the potential to escalate into a proxy war, drawing in regional and international actors who support different factions. External powers may provide military, financial, or logistical assistance to advance their interests. A proxy war in Sudan could prolong the conflict, deepen divisions, and complicate peace negotiations. It may also lead to regional instability, increased violence, and humanitarian crises. Since the UAE and Saudi Arabia have close ties to the RSF, and the Russian mercenary group, Wagner, is present in Sudan. Other countries could be drawn into the conflict, aligning with different factions based on their own strategic interests. The consequences of a proxy war would have far-reaching implications for Sudan and the broader Middle East region.
In summary, Sudan's internal conflicts and political dynamics have the potential to impact neighboring countries and exacerbate regional conflicts. As an Arab nation, Sudan plays a role in Arab regional affairs, and its political developments influence broader Arab dynamics. Additionally, Sudan's cooperation in counterterrorism efforts is crucial for regional and global security. In brief, Sudan's location, resource control, regional conflicts, Arab influence, and counterterrorism cooperation contribute to its geopolitical significance, with implications for regional stability, economic cooperation, and political dynamics in the Middle East and Africa.
Feyzullah Tuna Aygün is currently the Iraq Studies Expert in Center of Middle Eastern Studies (ORSAM) in Ankara
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw
