A month since the Sadrist withdrawal from parliament and the replacement of its members with those of the Coordination Framework and other parties, the leadership of the framework failed to choose its candidate for the prime minister as the largest bloc and threatened to continue the political impasse.
The Coordination Framework used the Parliament recess and then the Eid al-Adha holiday as an excuse for not settling the nomination of the next prime minister. However, the internal
Competition among the political leaders of the Framework, namely between Nouri al-Maliki, leader of the State of Law party, Hadi al-Amiri, leader of the Fatih Alliance, and Haidar al-Abadi, leader of al-Nasr. Each one sees himself as fit to assume the premiership job after their modest electoral showing turned into a great victory following the withdrawal of the Sadrist movement.
The rivalry between the first and second-tier leaders
Amiri announced in a statement issued on Monday July 11, "I am not a candidate for this position [the position of Prime Minister]" while reliable sources within the framework revealed that he retracted his decision during a meeting held on July 15, informing others in the alliance leaders that Fatih members demanded the position as an electoral entitlement in addition to being a national responsibility.
Maliki, for his part, alluded to his desire for the position, refusing to indicate his willingness to abandon the competition, similar to what Amiri announced on Monday, informing those close to him that he had not announced his candidacy at all. Still, he may do so if some might ask him to.
The intensification of competition between Amiri and Maliki is likely aimed at disrupting the selection process, as they are the most prominent component of the leadership of the Coordination Framework, and each of them has about a third of seats in the Framework, which makes it difficult for other candidates to compete with them.
It is noticeable that the majority of the political spectrum is contemplating and even wishing to choose a personality from the second tier instead of the traditional leaders who had previously assumed ruling responsibilities in the recent past. Prominent Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr joined these calls in a speech delivered on his behalf on Friday, demanding that those who have been tried before and assumed responsibility in the past should not be selected again.
The pace of meetings within the Coordination Framework escalated after Parliament Speaker Mohammed al-Halbousi announced the end of the legislative recess in a tweet on Friday in which he said, "I call on the brothers and sisters, heads of political forces and parliamentary blocs to assume responsibility and resolve dialogues to proceed with the election of the president of the republic."
This prompted the Coordination Framework to set up a meeting in the evening on the same day, issuing a statement saying: "The Coordination Framework approved its permanent meeting in an open and continuous session to choose the prime minister during the next few days according to the mechanisms established by the framework for this," indicating that the countdown to resolving the matter of choosing the prime minister has already begun and that the political forces within the framework are now feeling the internal and external pressure to resolve this issue.
The mechanism of selection and resolution of dialogue
The Coordination Framework did not announce the mechanism that it would adopt to resolve the prime minister's nomination file despite its marathon meetings, as it discussed the formation of a committee of the Framework's leaders entrusted with the task of studying and discussing the expected selection, and naming the possible candidate from among the proposed names. However, this committee is still awaiting approval and has not started its work. Some observers question the ability of this committee to resolve the matter because there are intersections related to the interests and orientations of the members of the committee itself, especially since some of them aspire to win the position at the expense of others.
Another way would be to go to the Coordination Framework's general commission, which means holding an expanded meeting for all the parliamentarians who are members of the Framework, during which the candidate is chosen through voting. This was the same method used to resolve the competition between Ibrahim Al-Jaafari and Adil Abdul-Mahdi in 2006.
However, this mechanism may result in tipping the balance in favour of the two large blocs within the Framework, namely, the State of Law and the Fatih Alliance, which means the re-intensification of competition between the leaderships of the two blocs; in addition to that, external interference will undoubtedly increase when voting, as the representatives who are members of the framework will be subjected to pressures and attempts to influence them, whether by inducement or threat.
Observers believe that the golden opportunity that Sadr gave to the Coordination Framework is about to dissipate amid the escalation of personal differences between the leaders of the framework and that their failure may cause political chaos and deepen the impasse. In this context, Iraqi politician Izzat al-Shabandar says, "if the framework does not pass the test, there will be no resurrection for its parties afterwards." Many Shiite observers share this fear; even some believe that they are facing the last chance for the stability and continuation of Shiite rule and that the next phase would mean facing an uncertain future.
The framework and its leaders have one opportunity to urgently reach a consensus to choose a candidate to head the next government as no more excuses are left to hide behind. Their failure would result from being self-centred and putting partisan interests in front of the country's general interests.
It is not clear if the leaders of the Coordination Framework can overcome their differences despite all the assurances they give; many political observers believe the impasse will continue, while few others think a name will be chosen to head the next government, as the field of names have narrowed to four possible candidates. In the next few days, it will be clear which side would be right.
Farhad Alaaldin is the chairman of the Iraq Advisory Council. He was the political adviser to former Iraqi President Fuad Masum, the former chief of staff to the KRG prime minister from 2009 to 2011, and the former senior adviser to the KRG prime minister from 2011 to 2012.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.