Kemal Ataturk laid the foundation of a country from the remains of a failed state, under discouraging conditions and in a divided geographical location, although a country that became a strong and influential regional actor.
Since then, the name of Ataturk as the founder of the country is held high. Despite the political changes in Turkey, military coups, emergence of different ideologies — all Turkish establishments and powers were influenced by Ataturk until Erdogan came to power.
Kemalism ended after Erdogan assumed power. At first he sought to find solutions to the drawbacks of Ataturk theory namely: tolerating more democratic principles, recognizing the existence of the “Kurdish problem,” creating better conditions for free speech, distancing the danger and effect of the army on civil institutions, and developing the economic infrastructure. He transformed Turkey phase by phase.
However, Turkey presently has been emptied of the spirit of Kemalism and is in the phase of forced imposition of Erdoganism.
The theories which Erdogan devised, while appearing different, were the reason for the survival of his ruling party two decades. These, however, turned out not to really be a part of Erdogan principles. They were tools to suppress and strengthen his position in the government. He controlled all powers by depicting himself as “different.” Given Erdogan’s policies and roadmap in Turkey, it is clear he wants a Turkey void of dissent.
Now that Erdogan is strong, the Turkish system is heading toward centralization even more than it was when Ataturk first started to rule: restricting freedoms, weakening democracy, and eliminating the characteristics that differentiated Turkey from regional countries.
He has changed the cultural and political direction of Turkey that was heading toward Europe into a mentality and system that produces violence and poses a danger to humanity.
Because the bulk of Kurdish territory and population is located in Turkey, political changes in Turkey affect Turks and Kurds alike. The Kurdish fate depends on what Erdogan is doing in Turkey. Further, what Erdogan is doing Rojava’s Afrin has affected the Kurdish cause and fate in the region.
In the long run, one of the effective implications of the policy pursued by Erdogan is a change in regional powers vis-à-vis the Kurdish problem.
For some centuries during which Islam was ruling in the region, most Kurds were under the rule of Iran and were also Shiites. However, the policy pursued by King Ismael Safawi to kill tribal leaders made the Kurds distance themselves from the Safawis and to join the Ottomans.
This led to the deepening of war and disagreements the Safawis and Ottomans when most Kurdish areas fell from Iran to the hands of the Ottomans. And this was because Sultan Salim Ottoman in Kurdish areas gave Kurdish leaders a chance to enjoy some kind of regional freedom and authority.
What Erdogan is currently doing is contrary to what Sultan Salim Ottoman was doing and is a repetition of the role played by King Ismael Safawi. He is distancing the Kurds from himself, creating conditions where they will turn to Iran.
And this will have direct impact on the Kurdish problem in Iraq and Syria. It will shift the focus of the Kurdish cause from South and West Kurdistan to North Kurdistan. In the next two to three years, Turkey will be the center of rivalry between the Kurds as an oppressed nation and Turks ruling.
Because of the discrimination and oppression against the Alawi Shiites, Kurds and Gulen groups in Turkey, because freedoms are being restricted day by day, it is easy for situations in Turkey to spill over and implode.
The slightest internal implosion of one of these three main components of the Turkish society will turn Turkey into another Syria. And the difference between Syria and Turkey is that Syria withstood these problems, but Turkey cannot resist these problems and will break apart easily.
Is there a chance that Turkey will not fall into this mess? What can prevent Turkey to turn into another Syria? The right path for Turkey is to distance Erdogan from his position.
Political changes might occur in future elections. The three oppressed social components and one of the moderate parties in Turkey or other AKP actors like Abdullah Gul or Davutoglu who take a different perspective than Erdogan, can form a new political entity. This way, a new chance for political life in Turkey will arise. Otherwise, the staying of Erdogan in power will hurry the process of turning Turkey into another Syria.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
