ISTANBUL, Turkey - Turkey will hold local elections on Sunday, a crucial vote that will lay the foundations of the country’s political scene for the next few years. The opposition is aiming to tighten its grip on the key cities it won in 2019 and the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) wants to win back the economic powerhouse of Istanbul and the capital Ankara.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s AKP, strengthened by his reelection to the presidency last year, also wants to take down the opposition’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) in its stronghold of Izmir.
The pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), meanwhile, aims to reclaim the Kurdish municipalities in the southeast of the country that its predecessor party won in 2019, but was stripped of when its mayors were removed and replaced by government-appointed trustees.
The results of the elections will not only dictate the country’s political power trajectory but also hold the key to potential constitutional reforms and peace negotiations over the Kurdish issue. Reclaiming Istanbul and Ankara would consolidate Erdogan’s grip on power, against the backdrop of his recent statements regarding these elections being his last.
Berk Esen, associate professor at Sabanci University in Istanbul, claims that the elections will be “consequential” in Istanbul and Ankara, noting that if the main opposition CHP’s popular mayors were to lose, the defeat could prove to be a debilitating blow for the already weak and fragmented opposition.
“If they were to lose their reelection bid, then not only that the opposition camp is going to lose two of its strongest possible presidential contenders in the next presidential elections whenever it will be held, but also the main opposition party will be deprived of its access to Turkey's two largest cities,” said Esen.
On Sunday, about 22 million registered voters, roughly one-third of total registered voters across Turkey, will head to the polling stations in Ankara and Istanbul. The potential loss of the two cities would strip the opposition of its primary platform to communicate with the Turkish people and mount a challenge against the government.
“Whoever controls these large municipal governments can provide services to millions of voters and gain a chance to reach out to them directly,” Esen said.
In recent years, Turkey has witnessed a political shift towards authoritarianism, as Erdogan effectively established control over the government, parliament, and judiciary, following amendments made to the country’s constitution in a 2017 referendum.
A win is crucial for the opposition to stand its ground in challenging the ruling party in the future. A loss would bludgeon the opposition parties into inter-party disarray, in a scenario similar to last year when the opposition’s loss in both the presidential and parliamentary elections instigated inner turmoil within the CHP, ultimately resulting in a change of party leadership in November.
Moreover, a win for the AKP would further empower Erdogan to push for the writing of a new constitution that could bestow upon him additional powers.
“If Erdogan's party were to gain control of some of these major metropolitan areas, then the ruling party will be further emboldened and will probably push for amending the constitution to give even more powers to President Erdogan and give him the chance to run for office a third time,” said Esen.
The Turkish constitution allows a president to stay in office for a maximum of two terms. Another Erdogan run would mark his third term as the president since the 2017 referendum. Before that, he was elected as president through a direct public vote in the country’s first-ever presidential elections in 2014.
The Istanbul showdown
In the 2019 local elections, AKP allied with the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), while the CHP was directly supported by the ultranationalist IYI party and indirectly by the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), DEM Party’s sister party, who refrained from fielding candidates in the province. This resulted in a historic win for CHP’s Ekrem Imamoglu who handed Erdogan his first defeat in over 15 years. Imamoglu secured the win in a rerun months later.
In the 2023 elections, the IYI Party and CHP joined forces to form the Nation Alliance in the hope of defeating Erdogan and the AKP. While the AKP kept the most seats in parliament, the presidential vote entered a second round, ultimately won by Erdogan, despite economic problems and a deadly earthquake.
Today the situation is different. The once united opposition is fractured as the IYI party decided to run independently, while the DEM Party decided to field candidates in every province, including Istanbul and Ankara.
Erdogan pinned his hopes of avenging his worst political defeat in over 21 years in power on former environment minister Murat Kurum, choosing him as mayoral candidate for Istanbul.
The DEM Party fielded MPs Meral Danis Bestas and Murat Cepni as co-candidates, in the attempt to pave a third way in the mayoral race in Istanbul.
Analysts believe that the results of the local elections will determine the long-term political future of Imamoglu and the opposition’s overall standing in the country.
“Looking at the last two elections, despite numerous economic crises and earthquakes, the ruling party winning indicates that Turkey has an opposition problem. If the opposition loses, there will be significant turbulence within their ranks,” Dr Ufuk Uras, former member of the Turkish parliament and assistant professor at the department of political science and international relations at Istanbul University, told Rudaw English.
Uras noted that, unlike previous elections, predicting the turn this vote will take proves a harder feat because there is no way for voters to use their vote strategically, in pursuit of a calculated outcome.
Opinion polls indicate that the elections will be a closely contested event. Results vary depending on the affiliation of the pollster to the different sides of Turkey’s political spectrum.
Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, head of AKP’s Istanbul branch, told Rudaw English that Istanbul “serves as Turkey's gateway to the world and the world's gateway to Turkey, making it crucial for all parties” to win.
AKP’s election campaign hinges on pointing out public service issues in the city that they claim Imamoglu has failed to address. Imamoglu’s campaign rests on the promise to build upon the work he started five years ago, including creating more facilities in the city and offering more stipends to students.
Imamoglu however has been criticized for making the same promises he did in the previous election, promises he later claimed he did not recall later in an effort to protect himself from the backlash resulting from not having delivered.
Ankara, Izmir, persistence and change
Similarly to the situation in Istanbul, the 2019 local elections also saw AKP’s loss to CHP in Ankara, following the opposition’s decision to field ultranationalist fan-favorite Mansur Yavas, who ended a nearly two-decade dominance of the ruling party in the city.
During a party event held in Ankara in January, Turgut Altinok, a prominent ultranationalist figure and incumbent mayor of Ankara’s Kecioren district, was handpicked by Erdogan to take on Yavas. This marked a shift in AKP’s policy from 2019 when they fielded the more ideologically lenient Mehmet Ozhaseki. This shift highlights Erdogan’s relentless pursuit of dominance in the political heartland of Turkey.
The Turkish president In January announced that Hamza Dag, his deputy in AKP, would be vying for the “republican fortress” of Izmir, where CHP has been in power for over two decades. According to Uras, a victory for the AKP would create significant turbulence within the ranks of the opposition. In Izmir, the CHP has been consistently triumphant over the ruling party and its candidates in every parliamentary or local election for the past 22 years.
CHP in Izmir chose Karsiyaka district mayor Cemil Tugay over the incumbent Tunc Soyer for the upcoming election. Pollsters indicate that Tugay is the favorite to lead the city until 2029.
The Kurdish question and the prospect of peace talks
In Kurdish cities of the southeast, Sunday’s vote is poised to be closely contested between AKP and the DEM Party. Erdogan said recently during an election rally that the vote will be pivotal and will constitute a “turning point” for Turkey’s Kurds who will determine their future in the country.
During an election rally in Diyarbakir on Wednesday, Erdogan acknowledged that his party did not get the number of votes it desired in the national election last year. Erdogan claimed that the alleged presence of 70,000 people at his rally reflected popular dissatisfaction with the 2019 election results and a desire for change.
In the parliamentary and presidential elections, the DEM Party garnered the majority of votes in Diyarbakir, with the opposition’s presidential candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu defeating Erdogan in the Kurdish-majority province.
HDP won Diyarbakir in the 2019 local poll, but months later the state removed the party's elected co-mayors and replaced them with pro-government trustees, in most cases governors. This was the outcome for the majority of the municipalities where the pro-Kurdish party had won. A large number of the elected officials were arrested and many of them remain in jail for alleged links with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK).
On Sunday, the DEM Party hopes to reclaim the municipalities usurped by AKP-appointed trustees, while the ruling party tries to appeal to the electorate by putting forward candidates who are native to the cities.
In Diyarbakir, Erdogan chose a Kurdish candidate, Mehmet Halis Bilden, to run against DEM Party’s co-candidates Serra Bucak and Dogan Hatun, the expected winners according to opinion polls. DEM Party and HDP operate on a co-chairing basis that formalises gender balance in their party and positions they hold.
Similar to Diyarbakir, the DEM Party’s candidates are also expected to win the mayoralty of the Kurdish-majority cities of Van and Mardin according to polls by MAK, a pollster close to the opposition.
Erdogan’s potential attempt to push for a new constitution following the polls would require support from the pro-Kurdish party to succeed. According to Article 175 of the current Turkish constitution, making amendments requires the agreement of at least three-fifths of the legislature, 360 members out of 600. AKP and its allies roughly have a combined 323 seats in the parliament, and the DEM Party’s 57 seats could be the last puzzle piece in Erdogan’s long-term plan.
During an interview with Rudaw earlier this month, veteran Turkish journalist and DEM Party MP Cengiz Candar stressed that Erdogan will need Kurdish support for any changes he wants to make and this may open the door to a resumption of peace talks with the Kurds to end decades of conflict in the country, adding that Kurdish rights and mother tongue rights must have a place in any new constitution
Following his win in last year’s presidential election, Erdogan has been openly critical of the constitution and said it is time for a new one. The current Turkish constitution was created in 1982 following a military coup. Despite amendments made in 2017 that swapped the country’s parliamentary system for a presidential one, Erdogan remains unhappy with what he has labelled the “1982 coup constitution.”
But for Erdogan to proceed toward his goal, he must stop the trustee policies according to Uras.
“Everyone knows that the trustee regime is illegal. If they are going to take steps towards a new constitution, they should refrain from appointing trustees,” he said, noting that the trustee system also hampers any progress toward solving the Kurdish issue in Turkey.
“By continuing the trustee policy, it's not possible to reach reforms regarding the Kurdish issue. That's very clear, so we hope they won't appoint trustees. It's rational not to do so,” he added.
There is a long history of animosity and conflict over Kurdish issues and rights in Turkey. The state has at times gone as far as denying the very existence of Kurds. Turkey's Kurds were provided limited cultural rights when Erdogan's AKP came to power three decades ago. The party has also appointed Kurdish ministers to its cabinets. The incumbent finance and foreign ministers are among them.
In a historic move, the Turkish government and the PKK announced a peace process in 2013, paving the way for a new era in Turkey. This granted Kurds certain rights that were previously seen as taboo by many Turkish politicians, including elective Kurdish classes in schools and press conferences during which PKK commanders briefed Turkish and international media about the latest developments. However, the peace ended in 2015 due to renewed tensions between both sides.
The HDP’s jailed former co-president Selahattin Demirtas, who was the main face of the now-collapsed peace process, recently called on the DEM party and the AKP to meet and enter negotiations. He said the interlocutors of such a process are Erdogan and jailed PKK leader Abdullah Oclalan.
Ahmet Turk, a veteran Kurdish politician and DEM Party candidate for Mardin, told Rudaw earlier this month that there are unofficial talks with Turkish officials to resume the peace process. He noted that the decision for peace ultimately lies in the hands of Erdogan.
Days later, however, the DEM Party spokesperson said there are no ongoing efforts to restart the process.
“There is no such process, meeting, or path [that DEM Party is taking] at the moment. But our demand for peace is always valid. Our demand for a solution is always valid,” DEM Party Istanbul co-candidate Bestas told Rudaw English on Tuesday.
