ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — The US decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal has maintained pressure on Iran, but the Islamic Republic is likely to take geographic advantage of Iraq in a long-term strategy to wait out US and European policies, researchers found.
"...the Trump administration, which unilaterally withdrew the U.S. from the deal in May 2018, has reimposed punitive sanctions on Iran. These have started to bite," read a report from the International Crisis Group (ICG) released on Wednesday.
Brussels-based ICG notes that Tehran has remained in compliance of the nuclear deal, allowing it not to upset European capitals and continue appeasing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
Politically, Washington's goals remain unclear to the Crisis Group. Some seemingly want to bring Tehran back to negotiations while other war hawks want to "destabilise or even topple the regime."
"While unilateral, U.S. sanctions are proving effective: they have left Iran with rapidly dwindling oil revenues and contributed to skyrocketing inflation," wrote the ICG.
Whatever policy wonks perceive happening, the geopolitics of Iranian influence in the Middle East cannot be brushed aside.
"Iraq is where we have experience, plausible deniability and the requisite capability to hit the U.S. below the threshold that would prompt a direct retaliation," the ICG quoted an Iranian security official in an October interview as saying.
For their part, officials in Baghdad and in the Kurdistan Region see limited options to appease Washington when they are so heavily dependent on Iranian trade.
The historic relations were on display this week when Iranian FM Javad Zarif was warmly greeted by Shiite Arab and Kurdish officials.
Washington, so long as it has an interest in Iraq, has been willing to allow Baghdad leeway in the sanctions. The ICG pointed to "market realities" preventing a campaign that is "not air-tight"
It pointed to eight waivers allowing Iraq to deal with Iranian energy.
“Iraq needs two years to wean itself off Iranian gas," Reuters reported in December.
The ICG argued because the sanctions largely affect middle and working classes in Iran, there will be little will for Tehran to come to the negotiating table.
"...if the Trump administration wants the Iranian people to believe that it harbours no rancour toward them, it ought to avoid impeding humanitarian trade with the country," the ICG wrote.
A short-term US strategy may prevent broader, long-term initiatives which the ICG sees as the only way to reel in Iran's influence in conflict-riddled areas of the Middle East — particularly Iraq.
