ERBIL, Kurdistan Region--After a century of being stuck with Iraq, the Kurds now believe the time has come to break away and form their own independent state. This lifelong dream, they hope, will take place soon and through a referendum.
“The time has come and the conditions are now suitable for the people to make a decision through a referendum on their future,” Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani said in February. “This referendum would not necessarily lead to immediate declaration of statehood, but rather to know the will and opinion of the people of Kurdistan about their future.”
There have since been different opinions about the referendum process. Most politicians and observers seem to agree that the Kurds have the right to self-determination, but differ on the timing and mechanism.
Veteran Kurdish politician and former Iraqi MP Dr. Mahmoud Othman believes that an end to tensions between Kurdish political parties is a must before a referendum becomes possible.
“The referendum is not possible to be held now, in such a tense situation that even the Kurdish parties do not talk to each other,” Dr. Othman told Rudaw. “To make the referendum happen they need to agree with Baghdad but they can only do that when they are united.”
To make the referendum happen they need to agree with Baghdad, 
Sheikh Salar Al-Hafeed, a lawyer and prominent member of the Barzinji family in Sulaimani who has been personally advocating for Kurdish self-determination, agrees that unity among Kurdish parties would make approaching Baghdad on this issue a lot easier.
“The referendum cannot be held soon, because the Kurds are not united here otherwise they could talk to Baghdad about it and make deal over that,” he said.
President Barzani visited the Kurdish parliament in the summer of 2014 and asked legislators to pave the way for a referendum and find the right mechanism. But a fallout between Kurdish parties in recent months which has put the parliament in a state of dysfunction may hamper this process.
“The Kurdish parliament is the place to make legislations on all decisive issues and referendum is one of them,” said Talar Latif, MP and member of the legislative committee. “We have some draft laws but discussing and passing the law was delayed due to parliament deactivation.”
But Ali Awni, a member of the leadership council of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) believes that it is more about the stance of two different camps on the issue of referendum and independence than the parliament being active or not at this stage.
“In Iraqi Kurdistan and all other parts of Kurdistan there are two Kurdish proposals, the first one only asking for the citizenship rights such as language and cultural rights and positions in the government and parliament of countries that have Kurdish population, the second proposal is asking and fighting for Kurdish rights based on geography and land,” Awni told Rudaw.
“The second proposal is seeking a Kurdish independent state,” he said.
The referendum law should mention where it should be held and what’s the question (on the ballot), For its part, the Kurdish election commission—established in 2014—that is expected to play a crucial role in the organization and management of the referendum also needs a law to work on and be able to help the process.
“This is the first time that referendum is being discussed officially in the Kurdistan Region, but for that issuing a law is needed as Baghdad did for the referendum on the constitution back in 2005,” member of the election commission Jutyar Adil told Rudaw. “The referendum law should mention where it should be held and what’s the question (on the ballot) and other details.”
Adil added that if they are given the law the commission is capable to organize the process.
“This won’t cost much,” he added confidently. “Maximum we will need a $10 million budget and also require less time for preparation and the KRG is ready to provide the budget, so mainly the absent of a law is the issue for us.”
The proposed referendum will also be held in areas which were until two years ago considered disputed territories such as Kirkuk and parts of Nineveh and Diyala and now under Kurdish control. However, people in these areas may have to vote on two questions: one to be incorporated into the Kurdistan Region and one for an independent state.
“The Kurdistan referendum law should include also the vote to incorporate the disputed areas into Kurdistan,” said Kurdish parliamentarian Latif. “In this case the Kurds in those areas will have two referendums one to incorporate them into KRG and second for independence.”
A vote encompassing all Kurdish areas does not seem to be an issue for the election commission, according to Adil.
“According to the electoral law in KRG, issued in 2014, the commission can organize elections and referendum in all of Kurdistan wherever there is Peshmerga we can send election ballots. So we can include all areas in the article in the referendum.”
Adil revealed that even the United Nations mission in Iraq (UNAMI) is willing to assist the process as long as there is a clear and concrete agreement between Erbil and Baghdad on the issue. “When we wrote to the UN on this, they said we are ready to collaborate and help on elections but on referendum we need to see the official agreement with Baghdad,”
They should take into account the interest of the big powers carefully, and should work on referendum peacefully. Dr. Othman agrees that the legal challenges could be overcome and an understanding with Baghdad is likely, but he predicts that ‘chauvinist” groups would be against such a move.
“According to our experience in Baghdad there are chauvinists among all the different Arab entities that won’t recognize the disputed areas return to KRG, they only recognize the three provinces of KRG,” he said.
“Baghdad and Iran are allies and can make problems for the referendum,” he warned. “Iran already declared that it is against the independence of Kurdistan and Turkey will oppose it as well and won’t accept Kirkuk’s return to KRG.”
Some international observers and experts on the region have long warned that the Kurdish quest for independence will destabilize the region, while most rather emphasize the importance of a peaceful referendum to avoid conflict.
“I think a referendum for independence won’t have a positive impact in the short term, and I am afraid this will lead to a new civil war in Iraq,” Cevat Ones, former deputy chief of the Turkish intelligence (MIT) told Rudaw in an interview. “The Iraqi Kurds achieved important rights in Iraq, today KRG relations with Turkey are going in a good direction, therefore they should take into account the interest of the big powers carefully, and should work on referendum peacefully.”
World powers such as the US, UN, Russia and the EU have for their part urged Kurds and Iraqis to resolve their differences through dialogue and preserve the country’s territorial integrity. They have in the meantime stated that they will respect the will of the Kurds.
At the end of the day, says Awni, member of the KDP leadership council, it is up to the Kurds themselves to decide. “To declare independence we do not need a referendum,” he said. “We just need to organize an event one day and invite the world leaders and figures and declare that we are now a neighbor of Iraq and ask the world to recognize it.”
