Twenty years after it was established by the United States, Anthony Blinken, President Joe Biden’s Secretary of State, visited the new Iraq that was supposed to be a model of American democracy for the entire Middle East. He was in the capital Baghdad for just one hour and 45 minutes, wearing a bulletproof vest, travelling in bulletproof vehicles, and accompanied by an army of bodyguards, US special forces, and a number of intelligence networks prepared by the CIA and its affiliates. He left the city in a rush and secretly - the same way he entered it.
Biden's cabinet is aware that Iraq has never been so far from the United States or so close to Iran as it is now, including under Saddam Hussein. Biden is aware that Iraq is the first example of a militia-based state in the entire Middle East and this model will spread to the Middle East from post-Saddam Hussein Iraq. Biden is also aware that the current Iraqi government is the political wing of Hashd al-Shaabi, not the other way around.
Hence, the president's secretary of state can visit Baghdad and meet with the Iraqi prime minister, but he knows very well that ultimately the decision-making center is elsewhere and none of the promises of the Iraqi government, the political wing of Hashd, can be decisive or provide the US and other powerful countries with complete insurance. The evening the Iraqi prime minister arrived in Erbil on an official visit, militias attacked Harir military base near Erbil, despite all the promises made to Biden's secretary of state.
The militias - not only in Iraq, but also in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen - understand that Biden’s hands are trembling. The president has his hands tied to two things. First, to the illusion of not disrupting security and stability in the Middle East. Biden’s cabinet is using every mechanism to limit the prospect of conflict, even if that happens at a high price. It’s no surprise that just three days before Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel, Blinken said at a conference that the Middle East had never been more peaceful and stable. Through this illusion, the United States wants to intensify the process of escape in the Middle East.
The second thing is next year's US elections. According to many indications, the game between Biden and Trump will be repeated and Biden does not want to waste his time managing US foreign policy and instead wants to prepare for this war with Trump and use the illusion of security and stability in the Middle East as a tool in his electoral campaign.
The main issue Biden is facing is that there is a huge difference between the real world and the illusory one. The more Biden's United States wants to escape the Middle East, the more the Middle East forces it to keep coming back.
In 2011, the Democratic cabinet led by Barack Obama withdrew US troops from Iraq, and Obama himself said American troops were leaving the country proud of their success. But three years later, ISIS invaded at least half of Iraq’s land and it was only a few kilometers away from entering the capital Baghdad. At such a moment, Obama's United States was compelled to return to Iraq.
Even now, despite the fact that Biden's hands are trembling, October 7 and its aftermath have forced him to fill the Mediterranean with weapons, aircraft carriers, even 24 nuclear-capable missiles, and about 150 Tomahawk cruise missiles, and install America's two most famous warships, Gerald Ford and Eisenhower, in Middle Eastern waters.
All this has not scared off Lebanese Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who indirectly challenged the US in a speech last week.
The Hashd al-Shaabi not only are not scared but have maintained their attacks against US interests in Iraq since October 7, with one US contractor dying of a heart attack during an attack on Ain al-Asad air base.
The militias are attacking the United States with drones and missiles in Iraq, and Washington is responding with Ambassador Alina Romanowski meeting the political wing of Hashd, the government of the Coordination Framework.
A month and three days after the Israel-Hamas war began, the main winner is neither Israel nor the United States, but it is Iran and the broad front that starts in Tehran, passes through Iraq, Syria, and Palestine and ends in Yemen.
Over the past three years, Biden's cabinet has treated the Middle East in the worst way and destroyed the weakest trust some of his friends had in Washington. Currently, the United States can rarely find a friend in the Middle East.
Even the Kurdistan Region, which used to be an important and strategic ally of Washington, has significantly lost confidence in the United States over the past three years. When 12 advanced ballistic missiles were fired at Erbil, Washington said they did not respond because their consulate was not attacked. Also, during the past three years, not a single Kurdistan Region leader has been received at the White House. How, why and why should the Kurdistan Region trust Washington?
As long as President Biden manages the Middle East crisis with a shaky hand, the United States will surely lose one friend after another, and Blinken will have to visit the capitals with bulletproof vests. In such a situation, no one should be shocked by the expansion and strengthening of the hegemony of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the entire Middle East.
Adel Bakawan is director of the French Centre for Research on Iraq (CFRI).
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
