Leaders in Erbil have publicly criticized the Turkish position. But under the current circumstances -- unfortunately for the Kurds -- Erbil does not have any kind of leverage against Turkey.
Turkey has become so important for the Kurdistan Region that Erbil is unwilling to risk its economic cooperation. Any setback in economic and energy cooperation might have a negative impact on the Turkish economy, but would be devastating for Kurdistan’s economy, particularly its energy sector.
Over the past few years, the antagonistic ties between Erbil and Ankara have undergone a dramatic alteration: the concerted efforts of both sides resulted in the establishment of a strategic, mutually beneficial relationship. Leaders in Ankara and Erbil consistently expressed satisfaction with their level of engagement and reiterated commitment to further strengthen and deepen their mutual ties.
Now, despite Turkey’s refusal to help Kurdistan in its time of need, for two main reasons the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) should continue its economic ties with Ankara.
Firstly, at this time there is no viable alternative for Kurdish oil reaching international markets. Iran may be considered an alternative by many observers. But with the recent massive military and humanitarian assistance given by Western countries to the Kurdistan Region, and considering the international sanctions on Iran, Erbil should avoid any major energy deal with Iran until Tehran has resolved its own nuclear and other disputes with the West.
Secondly, Turkey might eventually realize that any security threat to Erbil would dramatically drop Turkish revenues from Kurdistan. Hence, Turkey would be more willing to reassess its position on security issues pertaining to Erbil.
Kurdistan accounts for the majority of Turkish trade and investments in Iraq. Turkish companies make up more than half the foreign companies in the Kurdistan Region, where thousands of Turkish businessmen, investors and workers are doing business.
Turkey has proven to be the major contributor to the economic development and growth of Kurdistan, and remains Erbil’s gateway to the rest of the world. Disregarding Baghdad and Washington’s position on the KRG’s energy policy, Turkey is an indispensable factor in exporting Kurdistan’s oil through its port of Ceyhan.
Niyaz Barzani holds an M.A. in international politics from the University of Texas, and is based in Erbil; Twitter @BarzaniNiyaz
