In less than two decades the dreadful, tragic, bloody tapestry of atrocities that was the Kurdistan of yesterday has transformed itself into one of the most talked about non-state nations in the international press, thanks to its abundant natural resources.
The autonomous region is not a flawless democracy and does not possess a vibrant economy, yet.
But it enjoys a steady democratization and economic developments. Because of its rising status as a regional actor, it has considerable influence over the foreign policy decisions of some neighbor, and potential to be a regional player without achieving independence. Erbil can well extend its influence beyond the borders of neighboring countries.
Relations between Erbil and Ankara, beyond doubt, present the most successful foreign policy model in the region. The relations are mutually beneficial, and the two sides have consistently reiterated their strong intention of further strengthening economic and political ties.
The Kurdistan Region has played a huge role in the economic recovery of Turkey. Likewise, Turkey has proven to be the backbone of economic developments in Kurdistan. Successfully establishing and maintaining excellent relations with Turkey is very important, in the sense that it enhances the political reputation and status of the Kurdistan Region in the Middle East.
These relations have reached a new, pivotal point, where Erbil has dictated its influence over Ankara’s foreign policy towards Iraq, thanks to the magnificent economic interests offered by the Kurdistan Region. Nonetheless, Erbil’s economic overdependence on Ankara carries its own dangers.
In order to lighten that over-reliance on Turkey, what is required is for Erbil to rub shoulders with some of its other neighbors, and perhaps the neighbors of its neighbors -- particularly members of the G8 -- if it desires to maintain and secure its economic development and increase its power and influence at the regional and international levels.
Next to Turkey, the other extremely influential regional power is Iran, Kurdistan’s eastern neighbor. Amplifying economic ties with Tehran is an essential precondition for the rise of Kurdistan as a regional player. Currently, Iran enjoys strong relations with the Shiite-based Baghdad government, at the expense of the Kurdistan Region.
Therefore, establishing stronger, mutually-beneficial relations with Iran could encourage Tehran to pursue a more balanced diplomacy in dealings with Erbil and Baghdad, which would ultimately enhance the status of Kurdistan as a rising player in the region.
The Kurdistan Region has the potential to be an influential player beyond the borders of neighboring countries, especially in Europe.
It can do so, largely because of its large energy reserves.
Currently, Russia provides a third of all of Europe’s energy, and this dependence on Russian energy has long been a source of concern for the European countries. Regular disputes over energy prices between Europe and Russia, and Russia’s use of energy supplies as a pressure card against Europe’s foreign policy agenda, have encouraged Europe to seek alternative energy providers. Recently, the European Union Energy Commissioner reiterated that Europe should move faster towards reducing its dependence on Russia’s energy.
Here, Erbil can benefit from the energy tensions between Europe and Moscow. Due to its abundant energy resources, the autonomous region has the potential to compete with Russia as an energy provider to Europe.
Becoming an energy provider to Europe would enhance the international status and sphere of influence of the Kurdistan Region. Besides, the endorsement of European countries for the stability and prosperity of the Kurdistan Region would certainly go beyond issuing political statements.
Niyaz Barzani, MA in International Politics from the University of Texas. He is based in Erbil.
