ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - Iraq’s stored water reserves have increased more than sevenfold compared with the same period last year, as heavy rainfall has replenished dams and boosted river flows, Iraqi prime minister’s water affairs adviser told Rudaw.
Speaking to Rudaw's Nalin Hassan on the sidelines of the Middle East Research Institute (MERI) Forum in Erbil last week, Torhan al-Mufti said the country’s water situation had improved considerably following a severe drought that left reservoirs depleted and raised concerns over water security in the past few years.
“This year, the situation is different; the volume of movable or productive water we have is about seven times what it was last year, so the water situation this year is comfortable,” he said.
Mufti said Iraq had experienced its hottest summer in 35 years and its driest winter in 92 years before the recent improvement, attributing the extreme conditions to climate change.
“Currently, our dams are almost completely full, and we have daily discharges,” he said, adding that most dams were at least partially full, particularly those along the Zab, Tigris and Diyala rivers.
The Haditha Dam on the Euphrates is about 80 percent full, according to Mufti, who said water releases into the river had risen sharply.
“At this time last year, releases into the Euphrates did not exceed 250–300 cubic meters per second; now, they exceed 1,000 cubic meters per second,” he said.
He attributed the improved inflows partly to abundant rainfall this year, while also highlighting ongoing communication with neighboring countries over water management.
Iraq’s water-sharing arrangements with Turkey
Iraq relies heavily on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, both of which originate in Turkey. However, large-scale Turkish dam projects, including the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), have significantly reduced downstream water flow, exacerbating drought, desertification, and environmental degradation.
In November 2025, Iraq and Turkey signed the implementation mechanism of the Framework Water Cooperation Agreement, following an initial agreement reached in 2023.
Despite the improved water situation, Mufti cautioned that the current abundance should not be mistaken for a lasting resolution to Iraq’s water crisis.
“Scientific studies indicate that we might witness two rainy years followed by three or four years of drought,” he said. “Last winter was very wet, and I expect this year to be even wetter, but we must prepare for the year after, which may see a shortage of rain.”
Mufti said Iraq was currently receiving more than 1,500–1,600 cubic meters of water per second from the Tigris and Euphrates combined. The government had also diverted surplus water into the Tharthar Depression and was replenishing the Habbaniyah Depression, while 58 percent of the country’s marshland area was now covered by water, up from less than 17 percent last summer.
He stressed, however, that Iraq had never secured a formally designated water quota through a comprehensive water-sharing agreement with Turkey.
“For the record, Iraq has never had a specific designated water quota, because it never signed any prior water agreement with Turkey,” he said.
The only previous arrangement between the two countries that addressed water was the 1946 Treaty of Good Neighborliness and Friendly Relations, Mufti said, adding that its water-related provisions did not favor Iraq.
He said a memorandum of understanding (MoU) signed under former Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani’s government and implemented under Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s administration had introduced a mechanism for determining Iraq’s water needs and communicating them to Turkey.
Under the arrangement, Iraq calculates its requirements using an internal formula and submits the resulting figures to the Turkish side to help determine water releases. The figures are variable and are intended to be activated when Iraq faces actual shortages, he said.
The memorandum runs for 15 years and is renewable. Mufti said moving toward a binding treaty would require greater trust between the two countries.
“Frankly, there is a lack of trust between Iraq and Turkey, and between Iraq and Iran, regarding water usage,” he said, adding that the memorandum could eventually be upgraded to a treaty once confidence had been established.
Iraq preparing water memorandum with Iran
Mufti said Iraq was also preparing a similar memorandum with Iran, which supplies approximately 12 percent of Iraq’s total water resources, or around 20 percent when considering the Tigris basin alone.
He said the draft agreement was ready but that Baghdad was waiting to assess the benefits of its arrangement with Turkey before proceeding with Tehran.
“The draft is ready, but the current regional situation plays a role,” he said, adding that it would be difficult to pursue a water agreement while Iran was at war with the United States.
Mufti said Iraqi officials had received indications that Iran was willing to consider an agreement. One proposal under discussion involves redirecting the Karun River into the Shatt al-Arab, as it flowed historically.
He described the proposal as “extremely vital” for Iraq but said it would be pursued within the framework of a potential memorandum with Iran.
Desertification and long-term water risks
Despite the current improvement in water supplies, Mufti acknowledged that desertification continued to encroach on previously cultivated areas, particularly west of Mosul, in Salahaddin province and across southern Iraq.
He estimated that desertification affected between 11 and 12 percent of the country, while cautioning that he could not recall the exact figure. He said the priority was to prevent its expansion rather than focus solely on existing desertified areas.
Mufti said Iraq had more than 30 million dunams of reclaimed land before 2000, a figure that fell to approximately 16 million dunams by 2003, with the area currently cultivated having declined further amid water constraints and climate change.
He attributed the decline partly to Iraq’s reduced ability to sustain agricultural production and export crops following years of sanctions and their economic repercussions.
The adviser said the government had plans to curb the spread of desertification, but warned that abundant water reserves in one season did not justify excessive consumption, given the likelihood of future drought.
"While it is true we have a comfortable amount of water now, that does not mean we release everything, especially knowing that we might face water scarcity next year or the year after," he said.
Iraq has faced years of worsening water scarcity driven by declining rainfall, rising temperatures, upstream dam construction in Turkey and Iran, and longstanding water-management challenges. The Kurdistan Region has also experienced severe shortages, with drought affecting villages in Sulaimani and Duhok and prompting emergency water projects in Erbil and Sulaimani.
Iraq relies heavily on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers and is among the world’s most water-stressed countries. The World Resources Institute ranks the country among the 25 countries facing the highest levels of water stress, while the country consumes more than 80 percent of its available water supplies.
Although the latest rainfall has eased immediate pressure on reservoirs and river flows, Iraq’s long-term water security remains closely tied to climate conditions, agricultural demand and negotiations with its upstream neighbors.
