By Halo Kakawais
Iraqi political and military leaders have said on several occasions that they will soon declare victory over ISIS in Mosul. But ISIS has apparently prepared itself for an all-out war in the city, wanting to continue its caliphate in an area of 9 square-kilometers in Iraq.
No person or political party can accurately predict when the war will end in west Mosul. ISIS drew the Iraqi army deliberately to the place where they are currently fighting their final battles. ISIS couldn’t survive in the city’s open and non-complex neighborhoods, where they lost the entire eastern half of Mosul in the first 100 days of the offensive that began last October.
The area in which fighting is taking place in Mosul has now narrowed substantially, such that there is not enough territory in which long-range artillery or rocket bombing is viable. The only major place that remains held by ISIS is the Old Mosul district.
The number of ISIS militants holding out in this small territory is estimated to be between 500 and 1,000. From a military perspective, neighborhoods of Zanjali and Saha are complementary areas of Old Mosul town which has seven gates: three from the north and four from the south. The gates, considered to be districts are Bab al Tub, Bab Sinjar, Bab Latish, Bab al Biz, Bab al Shams, Bab al Saray and Bab al Jadid. The size of this territory is 9 square-kilometers where nearly 130,000 civilians are currently under siege.
The most important neighborhoods of Old Mosul are: Sarzkhana, Faruq, Shifa, Bab Sinjar and Zanjali.
An Iraqi military analyst says that the US-trained Counter Terrorism Service has the capability to fight the extremist group in Old Mosul.
“It is only the counter-terrorism forces that have experience in street fighting. Other forces have no such experience," Major General Majid Jasim, a military analyst, told Rudaw.
Baghdadi’s mosque
The Federal Police, Rapid Response Forces, Iraqi Counter-Terrorism Forces and Division 9 in the Iraqi Army are engaged on the right bank of Mosul. Hashd al-Shaabi is fighting outside Mosul. It’s been more than 40 days since the Iraqi Federal Police forces have reached the vicinity of the Nuri Mosque, where the ISIS leader Abu Bakir al-Baghdadi declared his so-called caliphate. They are 900 meters away from the mosque, stationed there without any advancement. It was the opening of the northern front by the counter-terrorism forces and Division 9 that made ISIS turn to Old Mosul to fight its final war there.
“Old Mosul will finally turn into a quagmire for Iraqi forces as every house in Old Mosul has a basement," Muayed Salm al-Jaash, an urban warfare expert, told Rudaw. "ISIS has fortified its positions there, and the Iraqi army is inexperienced and has no urban warfare force."
Rockets rain down on Old Mosul
Rudaw’s cameras captured absolute mayhem as some fleeing civilians were shot at by the ISIS militants in the city’s western district of Saha on Sunday, north of the well-protected, ISIS-held Old Mosul. The civilians traped in the Old Mosul also complain about the lack of food, drinking water and medicine.
“It’s been two months we haven’t had drinking water flowing from our pipes," a resident from the Old Mosul reached by phone told Rudaw. "We drink well water only. ISIS has removed doors of every house and has pierced walls of these houses. Hundreds of rockets and artillery shells rain down on us daily."
“ISIS will try every possible way to survive," Brigadier General Yahya Rasul, spokesperson for the Iraqi joint operations command, told Rudaw. "And our priority is to protect civilians rather than retaking territory. ISIS will certainly use anything at its disposal to defend the place they currently control."
By the estimates of the Iraqi commanders, the city should have been controlled as of Saturday when the holy month of Ramadan began.
They say they missed their self-appointed timeframe to protect civilians.
“We can never set a timeline to end the war. But we have well-prepared soldiers for the fight in Old Mosul. ISIS is hiding behind 100,000 civilians,” Rasul said.
“The Iraqi army’s tanks will stand by the gates of Old Mosul,” Jasim, the military expert said. “90 percent of the militants remaining there are suicide bombers. That is why it’s going to be a tough war. It will be street fighting that will settle the war. ISIS has dug a network of tunnels in Old Mosul that connects all the neighborhoods from underneath.”
