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Analysis
US troops from the Combined Joint Task Force take part in a handover ceremony in Mosul, northern Iraq, March 30, 2020. File photo: Zaid al-Obeidi / AFP
The United States military has denied a report in the Iranian press alleging it has deployed Patriot air defense missile systems to Syria’s eastern Deir ez-Zor province near that country’s oil and gas fields. Although such a deployment in Syria is indeed unlikely, could US troop in eastern Syria require some form of air defense in the future?
“More fake news in Syria,” tweeted Col. Myles B. Caggins III, the spokesperson for the US-led coalition on Wednesday. His tweet came in response to a report that appeared in Iran’s Al-Alam News Network.
Citing its correspondent in eastern Syria, Al-Alam alleged that the US has deployed three Patriot batteries near Deir ez-Zor’s Koniko gas field. The report also quoted sources saying US forces deployed additional Patriots across the Deir ez-Zor countryside, indicating the US is establishing a highly formidable surface-to-air missile network in that strategically-important region.
This, incidentally, is not the first time the US has reportedly began setting up an air defense system in Syria.
In August 2018, there were rumors that US forces were installing air defense and electronic radar systems in the Kurdish city of Kobane near the Turkish border in what was purportedly the first step in creating a no-fly zone extending all the way from Manbij in the northwest to Deir ez-Zor.
The US, as with its reaction to the latest Iranian claim, dismissed such rumors as “a mix of sensationalized misreporting and propaganda.”
However, it is unclear whether the US will eventually need some kind of air defense system to protect its troops in eastern Syria from potential air or missile attack, especially if they plan to retain an indefinite presence there.
Although incumbent US President Donald Trump withdrew US troops from large parts of northern Syria last October, which resulted in a destructive Turkish incursion into northeast Syria, his administration seems content with retaining a ground presence in the resource-rich east. If Joe Biden wins this year’s US presidential election, there are already some early indicators that a Biden administration would also want to keep troops in place.
Consequently, those troops may eventually need some air defenses if their presence is challenged by a variety of opponents ranging from the Islamic State (ISIS) to Iran-backed Shiite militias to the Syrian regime, which is likely.
US troops in eastern Syria already came under “a multiday attack” from small drones carrying improvised explosives in early March. One US soldier said the drones were “raining mortars” on their positions. There were no reported casualties.
It is unclear who carried out these attacks, although ISIS has in the past proven capable of weaponizing relatively cheap commercially-available drones.
Drone jammers and shorter-range air defense systems than Patriots, or even shoulder-fired MANPADs like Stinger missiles, could potentially enable US troops in eastern Syria to defend themselves against such attacks in the future.
Throughout its air campaign against ISIS in eastern Syria, the US has shown it can readily dispatch fighter jets to deter or even shoot down hostile manned aircraft and military-grade drones. Several incidents demonstrated that the US has essentially had an undeclared de facto no-fly zone over eastern Syria for some time now in defense of its troops and allied forces.
In August 2016, Syrian Su-24 Fencer bombers attacked Kurdish ground forces in the city of Hasaka during clashes between the Kurds and a pro-regime Syrian paramilitias. Nearby US special forces working alongside the Kurds felt the impact of the bombs. When Syrian warplanes returned for what appeared to be a second attack, US Air Force F-22 Raptors stealth fighters intercepted them and they promptly retreated.
On June 18, 2017, a US Navy F/A-18E jet shot down a Syrian Air Force Su-22 Fitter jet after it targeted members of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). In that very same month, US fighter jets also shot down armed Iranian Shahed 129 drones approaching the US training base of Al-Tanf in southern Syria near the Jordanian border.
These incidents demonstrate that the US has the capability to rapidly dispatch air power to protect its troops from a variety of different air attacks. And while the US troops might need some air defense systems to defend against the much smaller drones of the kind operated by ISIS, they might not necessarily require Patriots or similar systems any time soon.
In neighboring Iraq, on the other hand, the US recently deployed some Patriot missile batteries and short-range counter rocket, artillery, and mortar (C-RAM) systems to protect its troops based in the Al-Asad airbase in the country’s western Anbar province and the Kurdistan Region capital Erbil.
Both bases were utterly defenseless when Iranian ballistic missiles rained down on them on January 8. The Iranian missiles were highly accurate and, while no US troops were killed, several in the Al-Asad attack suffered traumatic brain injuries.
In light of these air defense deficiencies, the US deployed Patriot systems to the two bases to shield them against any similar attacks in the future.
If the US ultimately decides to hunker down in eastern Syria for the foreseeable future, it might find it necessary to deploy at least a limited number of these missile batteries there as well. After all, should the US and Iran find themselves engaged in hostilities, Iranian ballistic missiles or militia rockets might target US troops in eastern Syria rather than Iraq.
In October 2018, Iran fired ballistic missiles from its eastern province of Kermanshah directly into eastern Syria, targeting ISIS in the Deir ez-Zor border town of Albu Kamal. The missiles impacted “within three miles” of US troop positions. Washington denounced the attack as “reckless, unsafe, and escalatory”, since Tehran did not alert other military forces operating in the region of the impending strike.
Given the combat-proven accuracy of Iran’s ballistic missiles, Tehran could potentially pose a serious threat to US troops in eastern Syria so long as they do not have a formidable air defense capability established there.
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