Analysis
An Iraqi woman shows her ink-stained index finger before a national flag after having cast her vote in the country’s 2018 parliamentary election, in the Karrada district of Baghdad. File photo: AFP
In his January 31 Friday sermon, the representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani said that “returning to ballot boxes would be the better choice for the current time…. It is imperative to hold early elections so that the people have their say.”
Since then, the political parties adopted the call for an early election without much conviction, only to show that they are agreeing with the wishes of the Marjaiyah, the Shiite religious establishment.
The new government made early elections its first priority, writing in its program that it would hold them “after completing the electoral law, activating the Electoral Commission, and fully implementation of the Law of Parties”.
In a statement issued on May 13, the UN Security Council reiterated its support to the Iraqi government and to “help the government and Independent High Election Commission (IHEC) in elections.”
The question that begs to be asked is: what stance are the political parties, parliament, the government, and the IHEC taking on the elections?
Political Parties
Observers believe that the majority of political parties are not in favour of holding early elections, because they are unconvinced that they can succeed in preserving their status or increasing their influence. However, some might see another point of view.
The Sadrist movement believes the elections became a duty once they were called for by the Marjaiyah. Their opposition discourse and active participation in the demonstrations are in harmony with the people who are demanding change, and they believe they have what it takes to win more seats and become the largest bloc on their own.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) is also calling for early elections, but because it believes that the political process is heading against them. They believe that they have lost their grip on power after the resignation of Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government and the disintegration of the Fatih bloc. They also believe that the path of resistance and opposition is in accord with the mood of the street, which will lead to an increased number of seats, consolidating their political position. It is worth mentioning that the Badr Organisation within Fatih is not as keen as AAH for early elections, despite mentioning in their formal communications that they are for it.
The other supporting party is within the Nasr Alliance – specifically the Wafa Party headed by Adnan al-Zurfi, as early elections are in line with the guidelines of the Marjaiya and their belief that the political process failed to find real solutions to the country’s crises.
Meanwhile, the Coalition of Liberated Provinces supports early elections, provided that voting is by biometric card and under UN supervision. They believe that they have an opportunity to change the parameters of the Sunni political map.
Political parties less than eager to hold elections are the State of Law, the Hikma Movement, the al-Qiwa Alliance, and the Kurdish parties in general. These parties enjoy political influence, occupy the state’s highest positions, currently share power, or do not believe that early elections will provide them with any new opportunities. Some of them believe that holding early elections will reduce their political influence, and may drive them off from the political scene.
Parliament
Holding early elections requires parliament approval. As mentioned earlier, the majority of parties, who have in excess of 200 members, are not supportive.
At the same time, early elections mean the end of this current parliament, which in turn means current members losing their salaries and benefits. They also fear that there is no guarantee that they will take part in the upcoming elections, or that they will win a seat. The majority of them believe a bird in the hand is better than ten in the tree.
Perhaps continued incompletion of the new election law which was voted upon on December 24, 2019 – some seven months ago – is proof enough that parliament is not interested in early elections.
New Government
The government took it upon itself to hold early elections and made it their first priority, but it did not give this promise without the following conditions; firstly, the completion of electoral law; secondly, the activation of the Electoral Commission, and lastly, full implementation of the Law of Parties.
Facing the major crises of COVID-19 and the suffocating financial crisis, the government cannot allocate the necessary funds to IHEC – an allocation that is a crucial factor in conducting any election. While the government needs time to make progress and demonstrate some achievements, holding an early election means reducing the time the government might have to do so, affecting its standing and reputation.
In addition to financial difficulties, the election law is not complete and the IHEC is not yet operational, which means that the government has more than one reason not to proceed with early elections.
IHEC
Under demonstrator pressure to get away from Muhasasa, or partisan quotas, parliament decided to assign the IHEC’s duties to judges, instead of appointing them from within parliamentary ranks.
Seven judges were elected as IHEC members on December 23, 2019. The new commission started its duties in a completely collapsed institution, after the removal of the general managers and branch office directors as per the new law. In addition, the new commission faced a number of legal, financial and contractual problems.
Furthermore, the commission lives in a legal vacuum because the new law is not enacted, the previous law has been repealed, and preparations for the upcoming elections must be in accordance to the new law.
At the same time, the commission needs significant financial allocations. The previous government did not allocate any funds to it. Their hope was that the new government would do so, but the financial crisis is preventing necessary fund allocation.
According to IHEC internal sources, six to nine months will be needed for administrative and internal restructuring after the required funds are allocated. Elections can only be held after a year of restructuring – which means that the commission will not be ready to hold the next elections until the end of 2021, or the first quarter of 2022.
Setting a date for elections
Calls for early elections were a means of pressure by the protest movement and opposition on political parties, and the Marjaiyah used it to correct the political process. But political parties managed, as in the past, to procrastinate and circumvent it by various means.
Observers believe that there is no such thing as early elections, but there is the upcoming election which the earliest they can be held is April or May 2022 – close to their due date, given the current cycle started in 2018.
Since then, the political parties adopted the call for an early election without much conviction, only to show that they are agreeing with the wishes of the Marjaiyah, the Shiite religious establishment.
The new government made early elections its first priority, writing in its program that it would hold them “after completing the electoral law, activating the Electoral Commission, and fully implementation of the Law of Parties”.
In a statement issued on May 13, the UN Security Council reiterated its support to the Iraqi government and to “help the government and Independent High Election Commission (IHEC) in elections.”
The question that begs to be asked is: what stance are the political parties, parliament, the government, and the IHEC taking on the elections?
Political Parties
Observers believe that the majority of political parties are not in favour of holding early elections, because they are unconvinced that they can succeed in preserving their status or increasing their influence. However, some might see another point of view.
The Sadrist movement believes the elections became a duty once they were called for by the Marjaiyah. Their opposition discourse and active participation in the demonstrations are in harmony with the people who are demanding change, and they believe they have what it takes to win more seats and become the largest bloc on their own.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) is also calling for early elections, but because it believes that the political process is heading against them. They believe that they have lost their grip on power after the resignation of Adil Abdul-Mahdi’s government and the disintegration of the Fatih bloc. They also believe that the path of resistance and opposition is in accord with the mood of the street, which will lead to an increased number of seats, consolidating their political position. It is worth mentioning that the Badr Organisation within Fatih is not as keen as AAH for early elections, despite mentioning in their formal communications that they are for it.
The other supporting party is within the Nasr Alliance – specifically the Wafa Party headed by Adnan al-Zurfi, as early elections are in line with the guidelines of the Marjaiya and their belief that the political process failed to find real solutions to the country’s crises.
Meanwhile, the Coalition of Liberated Provinces supports early elections, provided that voting is by biometric card and under UN supervision. They believe that they have an opportunity to change the parameters of the Sunni political map.
Political parties less than eager to hold elections are the State of Law, the Hikma Movement, the al-Qiwa Alliance, and the Kurdish parties in general. These parties enjoy political influence, occupy the state’s highest positions, currently share power, or do not believe that early elections will provide them with any new opportunities. Some of them believe that holding early elections will reduce their political influence, and may drive them off from the political scene.
Parliament
Holding early elections requires parliament approval. As mentioned earlier, the majority of parties, who have in excess of 200 members, are not supportive.
At the same time, early elections mean the end of this current parliament, which in turn means current members losing their salaries and benefits. They also fear that there is no guarantee that they will take part in the upcoming elections, or that they will win a seat. The majority of them believe a bird in the hand is better than ten in the tree.
Perhaps continued incompletion of the new election law which was voted upon on December 24, 2019 – some seven months ago – is proof enough that parliament is not interested in early elections.
New Government
The government took it upon itself to hold early elections and made it their first priority, but it did not give this promise without the following conditions; firstly, the completion of electoral law; secondly, the activation of the Electoral Commission, and lastly, full implementation of the Law of Parties.
Facing the major crises of COVID-19 and the suffocating financial crisis, the government cannot allocate the necessary funds to IHEC – an allocation that is a crucial factor in conducting any election. While the government needs time to make progress and demonstrate some achievements, holding an early election means reducing the time the government might have to do so, affecting its standing and reputation.
In addition to financial difficulties, the election law is not complete and the IHEC is not yet operational, which means that the government has more than one reason not to proceed with early elections.
IHEC
Under demonstrator pressure to get away from Muhasasa, or partisan quotas, parliament decided to assign the IHEC’s duties to judges, instead of appointing them from within parliamentary ranks.
Seven judges were elected as IHEC members on December 23, 2019. The new commission started its duties in a completely collapsed institution, after the removal of the general managers and branch office directors as per the new law. In addition, the new commission faced a number of legal, financial and contractual problems.
Furthermore, the commission lives in a legal vacuum because the new law is not enacted, the previous law has been repealed, and preparations for the upcoming elections must be in accordance to the new law.
At the same time, the commission needs significant financial allocations. The previous government did not allocate any funds to it. Their hope was that the new government would do so, but the financial crisis is preventing necessary fund allocation.
According to IHEC internal sources, six to nine months will be needed for administrative and internal restructuring after the required funds are allocated. Elections can only be held after a year of restructuring – which means that the commission will not be ready to hold the next elections until the end of 2021, or the first quarter of 2022.
Setting a date for elections
Calls for early elections were a means of pressure by the protest movement and opposition on political parties, and the Marjaiyah used it to correct the political process. But political parties managed, as in the past, to procrastinate and circumvent it by various means.
Observers believe that there is no such thing as early elections, but there is the upcoming election which the earliest they can be held is April or May 2022 – close to their due date, given the current cycle started in 2018.
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