“Vote for us, vote for expelling the Kurds,” was the main slogan of the al-Hadba bloc in the 2009 elections, a Sunni Arab coalition of political parties in Nineveh. On that promise, Atheel al-Nujaifi, head of the coalition, won the election and became the governor. Although a Sunni, he called on the former Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to him deliver his promise and drive out the Kurdish forces.
Nujaifi and Maliki, it seemed, worked on their promise and for the next four years, Mosul security came under the control of Iraqi forces and s the Kurds were shunned out. Not surprisingly, security went from bad to worse. For the next election in 2013, the province had to postpone the process for two months because of public discontent against the central government and serious security concerns.
When people eventually went to the polls, al-Hadba together with the Iraqi Islamic Party’s Mutahidun list won only eight seats, and lost 14. Their campaign this time reflected the public dissatisfaction with the Shiite-led government.
One year later, in June 2014, the Islamic State (ISIS) advanced on Mosul, the capital city of Nineveh, and only a quarter of the population felt threatened by the newcomers. The majority remained in the city, some even showing support for the Islamist militants.
They preferred a Sunni insurgent movement under ISIS banner over the Shiite government. The local population support for ISIS was so strong that I wrote in this newspaper back then as to whether Mosul was Iraq’s Sunni Spring.
Much has changed since. The sense of peace and security some locals expressed immediately after the ISIS takeover is no longer. But one thing remains the same. The Sunni population of Mosul still do not trust the Iraqi army or the notorious Shiite militia.
They don’t like the Kurdish Peshmerga either. Governor Nujaifi said in late November that the Peshmerga could play a supporting role in ridding his city of ISIS, not a direct role. He hinted at any Peshmerga advance on Mosul is not seen as liberation by the people, to say the least.
President Massoud Barzani expressed the Kurds’ willingness to help free Mosul, but he did not want the Kurdish involvement to spark a Kurdish-Arab conflicts. Although the Sunnis favour the Kurds more than the Shiites at the moment—so it seems— Kurdish leaders are understandably cautious about the Arab nationalism particularly in Mosul.
As they sought the help of the outside world to defend Kurdistan Region against the barbarism of the Islamic State, the Kurds have by the same logic the obligation to hit ISIS whenever they can. But Mosul is different. The people of Mosul will see the Peshmerga as invaders the same way they labeled the Americans in 2003. So sending the Peshmerga to Mosul will do the Kurds more harm than good.
The Kurds have now retaken almost all their lost territory and outside their borders they should go only if they are guaranteed a hero’s welcome the way the Kurds received the Americans a decade ago. The Kurds called the 2003 war the liberation of Iraq and the Arabs still call it occupation. The question is: would the people of Mosul see the end of ISIS as liberation? I very much doubt it. Should the Kurds fight for Mosul then? I don't think so.
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