In the region Russia is utilizing its new found alliance with Turkey, which is playing out to the detriment of some of Russia’s traditional allies as well as some new ones. Russia has acted as a guarantor of Armenia’s national security; Armenia is not one of Turkey’s favorite neighbors. Russia was also a party to the negotiated Iran nuclear deal that was supposed to keep Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons and keep the world from another Middle Eastern war. Recently Russia launched long range TU22M3 bombers from Iran to attack ISIS targets in Syria around the same time Syrian aircraft were attacking bases of US supported rebels. These bases also had US forces in them who were helping train the rebels. The US protested both actions and claimed they would use US aircraft to defend bases with US forces in them.
The problem with the US protest is that recent history has shown the US does not follow up on any of its threats. Going back to 2013 when the US threatened actions against Syria for use of chemical weapons and got some backing from NATO, as soon as Russia stepped in to say they would take charge of the weapons the US backed off. While chemical weapons were transferred to Russian control, Syria retained and continues to use such weapons.
A warning becomes critical to those still looking to the West for some cover. Russia’s new era of expansion started in Crimea and pushed into Ukraine. It expanded its presence in Syria, established military ties with Iraq and now is basing aircraft in Iran. Thousands have died and the West protested and established sanctions. The protests have done little, regardless of their legal basis. Many of the bombs dropped in Syria have been incendiary devices which is in violation of international law and treaties. The sanctions may have some effect on the people in the short run but will have little impact on the elites.
While searching for an answer to the many crises in the world that will fit into the ideologies of the current administration, the US has lost sight of the people whose lives are impacted by actions beyond their control. The US is focused on ISIS as the main problem, whose destruction will mean that all other problems will be solved. This is an easy assumption to make when you can ignore all the other data points that have led to the violence in the Middle East and the historic viewpoints of dictators, or by ignoring history itself.
Among those peoples who are becoming forgotten are the Kurds of Northern Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran. In the fight against ISIS, the Iraqi Army and Shia militias have managed to destroy several Iraqi cities and kill thousands of Iraqi civilians and allowed Shia militias to run rampant over exploited Sunni populations, and yes they did take territory away from ISIS. ISIS in turn has expanded its operations worldwide. The west in turn has ignored the killing of hundreds of Kurds a day in Iran, the lightning speed at which Turkey is becoming a dictatorship, including the shutting down of a free press and the attacks and intended closure of the HPD Kurdish political party and the soon to come arrests of its leadership, coupled with the continued lack of support to the Iraqi Kurdish military, the Peshmerga, while weapons and equipment intended for the Peshmerga are funneled to the Shia militias.
The Russian expansion into Turkey, Iran, Iraq, and its continued control in Syria will allow for the eventual and anticipated attack on the Kurds, if western interest do not change tactics and ensure it does not happen. Russia will likely incite massive problems as a cover for some other activity, such as a final push into Ukraine or some other eastern European country.
All of this is avoidable if the rest of the world says no and that there is no doubt there will be consequences. This is likely not going to happen in the short term.
Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
