Error occured during this request! Please try again later.
This Monday, September 25th, for the first time in history, Kurds and others within at least one part of Kurdistan will vote in a referendum on independence. That is a historic event and excitement grows as the day draws near.
Worries also multiply as the whole world seemingly, with the exception of Israel, lines up to express its opposition to the referendum. Turkey conducts military exercises on the border, while Iran threatens an embargo and other problems. Baghdad suddenly develops a keen interest in what is constitutional and what is not (as if cutting Kurdistan’s budget and not implementing Article 140, along with a host of other obligations, was constitutional).
Worries also multiply as the whole world seemingly, with the exception of Israel, lines up to express its opposition to the referendum. Turkey conducts military exercises on the border, while Iran threatens an embargo and other problems. Baghdad suddenly develops a keen interest in what is constitutional and what is not (as if cutting Kurdistan’s budget and not implementing Article 140, along with a host of other obligations, was constitutional).
Even the United States seems to have found something they agree with the Iranians about — their displeasure regarding the referendum. Many of the so-called anti-imperialists also clamor and denounce the referendum, apparently thinking that what is good for the Palestinians, the Quebecois, the Scotts, the South Sudanese, and others is not appropriate for Kurds.
All this negative reaction over a referendum — which is an exercise in direct democracy to ascertain what the people want — might surprise some people. It does not surprise most of this columnist’s Kurdish friends, however. They’re quite used to this kind of hypocrisy from the world’s established states: “Democracy blah blah blah American values blah blah blah international community blah blah blah self-determination blah blah blah,” except for the Kurds.
If anyone ever doubted that now is the right moment for a referendum, this should convince them. With the exception of Israel, some scattered pro-Kurdish EU parliamentarians and a few others, no one will ever acquiesce to the creation of a Kurdish state. Waiting for a time when they will willingly accept such a prospect would be like waiting for the day dogs will stop chasing cats.
All of which means the timing for both a referendum and a declaration of statehood must come when the prime chasers of Kurdish cats are too weak, or too occupied with other problems, to put up much of a chase. Turkey faces severe internal polarization, its own renewed Kurdish insurgency, a weakened economy that is partly dependent on Iraqi Kurdistan (its third largest trading partner), and collapsed relations with Europe and the United States.
Syria has ceased to function as a state, and lingers on only thanks to very costly Iranian and Russian assistance. Baghdad takes months and months to push out isolated Jihadis who lost their supply lines some time ago, and still has not managed to get its electricity grid working. Iran, finally, is as overextended as it has ever been — one false military adventure in such circumstances could bring its whole house of Islamic cards crashing down.
The Kurds in Iraq do not need to be more powerful than Baghdad, Turkey, Syria or Iran — they just need to be more determined and more willing to defend themselves than the others are to attack. President Barzani seems to understand this, and he shows very admirable determination to go ahead with the referendum despite all the international pressure to cancel it.
The Americans seem to have forgotten what they told Barzani in 2014, when Vice President Joe Biden prevailed upon the Kurds to support the creation of the new Abadi government (after the fiasco of Maliki), and said “If it doesn’t work out, we will never again tell you to go back to Baghdad and join the government. This is the last time. Just give it one more chance.” Barzani and most other Kurds in Iraq have not forgotten, and no matter how many shiny beads and smallpox-infested blankets (a.k.a. “substantive negotiations with Baghdad”) Special Presidential Envoy Brett McGurk promises them, they will not be fooled again.
Once the referendum is held, the entire world will have irrefutable evidence of what the people of South Kurdistan, including much of the “disputed territories” (such as Kirkuk), want. The Kurdistan Regional Government will have a legitimate mandate to proceed accordingly. They may proceed sooner rather than later, given that the same relative power dynamics allowing for a referendum also remain necessary for a declaration of statehood.
Although a host of difficulties and challenges no doubt await before the results of the referendum become a ‘fait accompli’ that neighbors and the world learn to accept, most of this columnist’s Kurdish friends can hardly wait.
David Romano has been a Rudaw columnist since 2010. He holds the Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and is the author of numerous publications on the Kurds and the Middle East.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
Comments
Rudaw moderates all comments submitted on our website. We welcome comments which are relevant to the article and encourage further discussion about the issues that matter to you. We also welcome constructive criticism about Rudaw.
To be approved for publication, however, your comments must meet our community guidelines.
We will not tolerate the following: profanity, threats, personal attacks, vulgarity, abuse (such as sexism, racism, homophobia or xenophobia), or commercial or personal promotion.
Comments that do not meet our guidelines will be rejected. Comments are not edited – they are either approved or rejected.
Post a comment