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Iraqi Kurdistan has made impressive gains in the past several years. Despite the presence of a government in Baghdad determined to centralize government power there, they have maintained their autonomy steadfastly. Without doing anything crazy, they patiently pursued their interests in Baghdad, the region and the rest of the world. As a result, they have not only maintained their autonomy but also seem poised to strengthen it with new, independent oil pipelines into Turkey.
Many critics of the Kurds said they would never build such pipelines. Now that the first one is nearly complete (with other pipeline projects also recently announced), some analysts claim it is not really independent. Writing in al-Monitor, Denise Natali states that because the new pipeline will connect into the Kirkuk (Iraq)-Ceyhan (Turkey) pipeline, the Kurds will have to coordinate with Iraqi government authorities in order to pump any of their oil: “Even with its own metering station, the KRG will have to tie its pipeline into the existing Iraqi-Turkish pipeline if it wants to transport Kurdish crude to Turkey’s Mediterranean port in Ceyhan. There is no alternative pipeline infrastructure in Turkey in which this KRG line can be connected....The KRG would also have to coordinate the timing of its crude shipments with Iraqi officials in Kirkuk who control the Iraqi-Turkish pipeline, since the heavier grade of Kurdish crude cannot be mixed with the lighter Kirkuk grade.”
This is actually incorrect, according to Iraq Oil Report’s November 18 story on the issue. The existing Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline is really two parallel pipelines of 46 and 40 inches diameter. The 46" pipeline is underused, transporting only a portion of the roughly 400,000 barrels per day it is capable of from central government controlled fields in Kirkuk. The 40" pipeline, however, is dormant and capable of transporting some 300,000 barrels a day. Turkish officials estimate that it will take only around 2 weeks for them to refurbish their side of the pipeline. The Kurdistan Regional Government, meanwhile, is presently digging up the dormant 40" pipeline on their territory, just downstream from the Iraqi metering station to the south. They will connect their new pipeline to it and presumably block the end point towards Kirkuk.
That looks like an independent pipeline to me. Authorities in Baghdad have objected, of course, but the Kurds and their friends in Ankara appear to be busily ignoring them. They will find a legal and financial regime to sell Kurdish hydrocarbons to a thirsty Turkish and European market, and unless Baghdad agrees to the arrangement it won’t see a penny of the proceeds. That’s because Law #5 of the Kurdistan Regional Government, passed last Spring, allows the region to keep as much of its oil revenues as it needs to in order to make up for money owed to it by the central government. Given the issue of reparations for crimes of the previous regimes in Baghdad against the Kurds, there’s a lot of money the central government could be calculated to owe Kurdistan. Stopping all sharing of oil revenues with the rest of Iraq would no doubt violate Article 111 of the Iraqi Constitution, of course, but Baghdad refusing to transfer money it owes Kurdistan and trying to monopolize all aspects of the hydrocarbon industry isn’t very constitutional either.
Which, of course, leads to the next remarkable achievement of Iraqi Kurdistan over the past several years: They turned a once implacable Turkish foe into an ally. Just ten years ago, who would have expected this? Who would have predicted that KRG President Barzani would be warmly hosted in Diyarbakir by Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan, as formerly exiled Kurdish singer Shiwan Perwer serenades them? This happened last week.
With multiple insurgencies in Prime Minister Maliki’s part of the country growing to alarming levels, and the alienation of most of Maliki’s former allies, there doesn’t seem to be much Baghdad can do about it either. As long as the Kurds don’t do anything stupid like starting a fight over the disputed territories, and I have not seen a single indication that they plan to do this, time is on their side. They may even get to again play a kingmaker role in Baghdad after the 2014 elections, at which point I hope they will carefully consider their choices. In the meantime, they just need to keep building those pipelines and keep being nice with those Turks.
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