Iraq is teetering towards full blown civil war, but Kurds aren’t only watching the news. World Cup mania has swept the region, and that’s a good thing. Even with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) less than 90 kilometers away from Erbil, the autonomous region’s capital, life goes on as normal for most Kurds thanks to the efforts of the region’s Peshmerga forces.
Iraqi state media has accused the Kurds of colluding with ISIS to destroy Iraq. Foreign commentators have hinted that Kurds are “the big winners” of this conflict because they have control of Kirkuk and retain the strongest military forces in the country. Erbil has scored serious leverage in Baghdad, they say.
Kurds should tune out these people, turn on the TV, and tune into events in Brazil instead. Considering their tragic past, they bloody well deserve a break from the spectacle of violence next door.
Convening in Lausanne, Switzerland in 1923, the international community reneged on their promise to give Kurds statehood. Ever since Kurds have been “the big losers” of history, a nation divided between four different countries where they found themselves--in all four cases-- a persecuted minority population. Here in Iraq, the state waged a ruthless and systematic genocidal campaign against them.
As yet another wave of violence shakes the country, priority number one is to save Kurdish lives, not the sovereign integrity of Iraq. After 82 years, it’s time to admit that Iraq is a failed project. Everyone knows its modern borders were drawn by inept and self-interested foreigners, and everyone knows inept and self-interested foreigners keep returning to try and make them stick. It doesn’t work, and the Kurds are the last people that should fight for it. A unitary Iraq is not worth the bones of a single Peshmerga fighter.
The task ahead is to find a way to midwife a truly decentralized Iraq, or to peacefully partition it into smaller states.
“We need to find a formula to live together,” Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani told the BBC. “But if we expect that Iraq will go back like before Mosul, I don’t think so. It’s almost impossible…The best way is to have a Sunni region, like what we have in Kurdistan.”
The 2005 Iraqi Constitution was designed to create precisely the sort of federalism Barzani is talking about. According to the law, Iraq should’ve become a Mesopotamian Switzerland, a confederation of fiercely independent regions. Unfortunately, that didn’t happen. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki capitalized on sectarian divisions to consolidate power, driving Sunnis and Kurds out of key posts in the military and government and naming himself Minister of the Interior, Defense, and National Security Affairs. Who can blame Kurds and Sunnis for rejecting this authoritarianism and demand their constitutional rights?
Mark my words: nobody is “the winner” in the current situation. Everybody loses as Iraq falls to pieces. Just because the Kurds have control over Kirkuk and have managed to stay out of the fray thus far doesn’t mean they've actually gained anything--they were entitled to peace, oil exports, and autonomy all along. Furthermore, developments are not positive. Kurdish cabbies in the south are getting beaten up by Shia militiamen gearing up for civil war. Kurdistan has terrifying new neighbors, a motley crew of Islamic radicals and former Baathists. These militants have already claimed Kurdish lives, and who knows what they intend to do in the future. ISIS has issued fatwas against Kurds in Syria, authorizing fighters to behead Kurdish men and take their wives.
So why don’t Kurds declare independence tomorrow? It’s not in the KRG’s best interest right this instant. It’s not enough to control Kirkuk; there is a very particular sequence of events that needs to happen. The KRG must carry out a proper census, then hold a referendum in the territories to determine whether they want to join the Kurdistan Region. Kirkuk is a multi-ethnic city, and without a fair referendum, whatever remains of the Iraqi state would never accept the loss of the oil-rich area.
Kurdish leaders know the wisest course of action is simply to follow the constitution and declare independence only if the government tries to block them. Don’t forget it’s in everybody’s interest--except for Maliki and his cronies, perhaps--for restive regions to secure federal power of their own. But after years of deceit and abuse, even the slightest violation would justify secession.
In this spirit, I suggest Iraqis of all stripes lend their support to federal republics competing in the World Cup: Brazil, Argentina, Switzerland, Germany, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Russia, Mexico, or the United States. Federalism is a noble concept, even if doesn’t always win in the end.
Alexander Whitcomb is a graduate of Columbia University and holds a Masters in Advanced International Studies from the Diplomatic Academy of Vienna. He is a staff writer for Rudaw specializing in Political Economy. Follow him on Twitter @Alex_Whitcomb
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