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A few years ago when Mr. Barack Obama was president of the United States (it feels like a very long time ago), this column compared America to a rich kid in school who desperately wants friends. With Mr. Obama’s rhetoric about reaching out to Iran and others, as well doves such as John Kerry managing US diplomacy, it often felt like others could take advantage of the United States at will.
The pendulum now seems to have swung in the other direction. President Trump and his advisors – especially the famously hawkish John Bolton – do not appear at all shy about brandishing America’s military and economic might. Whereas the Obama administration appeared willing to forgive or ignore a lot of anti-American rhetoric and behavior abroad, the Trump administration is taking down names.
Nowhere does this look more clear than when it comes to Iran. Obama and Kerry’s carrots have been replaced by Trump and Bolton’s sticks, and much of the world is worried. After abrogating the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration reenacted a severe sanctions regime against Iran. For the first time, these sanctions include a strategy for pushing Iran’s oil and gas revenues down to zero.
Countries and companies trading with Iran risk being blacklisted by Washington and completely cut out of the American-dominated international financial system. Faced with the choice of doing business with Iran or the United States, hardly anyone would choose the former.
Under such circumstances, the clear Iranian strategy must be to make the new status quo as unpleasant and costly for America and her allies as possible. Iran’s weakness vis-à-vis America necessitates covert, irregular warfare tactics to do this, however.
If nothing can be clearly traced back to Tehran – including sabotaged oil tankers, damaged Saudi oil pipelines or terrorist attacks on “soft” targets – then most of the world’s sympathy will remain with the Iranians. So far, Trump’s America very much looks like the bully to much of the world, with its unilateral withdrawal from a nuclear treaty that Mr. Obama and Kerry negotiated and the follow-up actions to hurt Iran. One popular satirical news article making the rounds on social media has the following headline: “In Brazen Act Of Aggression, Iran Deploys Its Country Right Next To Our Aircraft Carrier.”
As a new American aircraft carrier battlegroup steams towards the Persian Gulf together with more bombers and perhaps troops as well, Washington tries to signal that it will not tolerate attacks by Iran or its proxies. Many therefore wonder if an Iranian regime backed into a corner, combined with an American administration that likes sticks much more than carrots, will lead the world into yet another Mideast war. This week’s evacuation of non-essential US diplomatic staff from embassies and consulates in Iraq adds to the worry.
With the possible exception of US National Security Advisor John Bolton, however, leaders in Washington and Tehran do not want such a war. The Iranians would lose and the Americans would slide even further into debilitating debt. Mr. Trump and a majority of his constituents also wish to reduce American military entanglements abroad and especially in the Middle East. Iranians of all stripes likewise still harbor bitter memories of the Iran-Iraq war.
As a result, we are left with the kind of brinksmanship presently occurring. Brinksmanship is defined as “The art or practice of pursuing a dangerous policy to the limits of safety before stopping, especially in politics.” If brinksmanship is an art, however, many might justifiably ask if Mr. Trump is much of an artist. If not, it seems easy to imagine how this entire situation could easily spiral out of control. Some in Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iranian Kurdistan may wish it to come down to war between America and Iran, but most of the world and most Iranians and Americans would prefer to avoid such a fate.
The pendulum now seems to have swung in the other direction. President Trump and his advisors – especially the famously hawkish John Bolton – do not appear at all shy about brandishing America’s military and economic might. Whereas the Obama administration appeared willing to forgive or ignore a lot of anti-American rhetoric and behavior abroad, the Trump administration is taking down names.
Nowhere does this look more clear than when it comes to Iran. Obama and Kerry’s carrots have been replaced by Trump and Bolton’s sticks, and much of the world is worried. After abrogating the Iran nuclear deal, the Trump administration reenacted a severe sanctions regime against Iran. For the first time, these sanctions include a strategy for pushing Iran’s oil and gas revenues down to zero.
Countries and companies trading with Iran risk being blacklisted by Washington and completely cut out of the American-dominated international financial system. Faced with the choice of doing business with Iran or the United States, hardly anyone would choose the former.
Under such circumstances, the clear Iranian strategy must be to make the new status quo as unpleasant and costly for America and her allies as possible. Iran’s weakness vis-à-vis America necessitates covert, irregular warfare tactics to do this, however.
If nothing can be clearly traced back to Tehran – including sabotaged oil tankers, damaged Saudi oil pipelines or terrorist attacks on “soft” targets – then most of the world’s sympathy will remain with the Iranians. So far, Trump’s America very much looks like the bully to much of the world, with its unilateral withdrawal from a nuclear treaty that Mr. Obama and Kerry negotiated and the follow-up actions to hurt Iran. One popular satirical news article making the rounds on social media has the following headline: “In Brazen Act Of Aggression, Iran Deploys Its Country Right Next To Our Aircraft Carrier.”
As a new American aircraft carrier battlegroup steams towards the Persian Gulf together with more bombers and perhaps troops as well, Washington tries to signal that it will not tolerate attacks by Iran or its proxies. Many therefore wonder if an Iranian regime backed into a corner, combined with an American administration that likes sticks much more than carrots, will lead the world into yet another Mideast war. This week’s evacuation of non-essential US diplomatic staff from embassies and consulates in Iraq adds to the worry.
With the possible exception of US National Security Advisor John Bolton, however, leaders in Washington and Tehran do not want such a war. The Iranians would lose and the Americans would slide even further into debilitating debt. Mr. Trump and a majority of his constituents also wish to reduce American military entanglements abroad and especially in the Middle East. Iranians of all stripes likewise still harbor bitter memories of the Iran-Iraq war.
As a result, we are left with the kind of brinksmanship presently occurring. Brinksmanship is defined as “The art or practice of pursuing a dangerous policy to the limits of safety before stopping, especially in politics.” If brinksmanship is an art, however, many might justifiably ask if Mr. Trump is much of an artist. If not, it seems easy to imagine how this entire situation could easily spiral out of control. Some in Saudi Arabia, Israel and Iranian Kurdistan may wish it to come down to war between America and Iran, but most of the world and most Iranians and Americans would prefer to avoid such a fate.
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David Romano has been a Rudaw columnist since 2010. He holds the Thomas G. Strong Professor of Middle East Politics at Missouri State University and is the author of numerous publications on the Kurds and the Middle East. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw. |
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