In a book I was reading recently a document caught my attention. It dates back to the Kurdish civil war era and is about a conversation between Jalal Talabani, the leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and a delegate from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards (Pasdaran). The two discuss possible ways to export crude oil from the Shiwashok fields in Kurdistan to Iran in order to generate revenues for the PUK-controlled areas.
Given the situation back then, a conversation of this nature is quite normal. Relations those days with the neighboring countries were often based on military and intelligence interests. Moreover, the Kurdish people’s need for survival made many practices normal.
But the situation is completely different today. ExxonMobil and many other oil giants are operating in Kurdistan. As we all know, in less than a month the Kurdistan-Turkey pipeline is to carry Kurdish oil to the outside world. As my friend and Gorran MP Ali Hama Salih says, this is a strategic and historical project, “If kept in honest hands.”
From the era of getting oil buckets we have leapt into the era of pipelines. This is a great opportunity for Kurdistan to play an important economic role. The Kurdistan Region sits on 55 billion barrels of oil. This is to say that Kurdistan’s oil reserves are bigger than those of Libya. Reports also indicate that Kurdistan can be one of the world’s major suppliers of natural gas.
Three years ago, a former adviser to the German chancellor told me that the world still does not believe the figures coming out of Kurdistan. That is because the numbers have not been verified. But once they are, Kurdistan will be in a strong position in the world.
Today, Kurdistan is reaching out to the outside world. But because this is not noticed inside Kurdistan, it has made it difficult to take advantage of the economic steps the region is taking to promote its political status.
Domestic issues in Kurdistan, particularly in Sulaimani province, overshadow the oil pipelines and make them seem insignificant.
The pipeline might be seen as just a means to export oil. But to me, it is significant in two aspects: First, it will prevent the smuggling of oil and make oil exportation a national project. Second, it will provide a stronger bargaining chip for Kurdish politicians. As Reuters had pointed out, it will provide economic independence for Kurdistan.
By owning its oil and getting to export 300,000 barrels per day from the Kirkuk oilfields, Kurdistan can prevent Baghdad from imposing difficult and unreasonable conditions on the autonomous region. This would also tell Baghdad that Erbil can no longer ignore Kurdistan’s share of the federal budget, which is expected to reach US$18 billion.
Kurdistan will gain more political strength once the pipelines have become operational. Therefore, political groups must look to the future instead of focusing their attention on petty domestic issues.
For instance, the Change Movement (Gorran) is one of those political parties that has a share in the future of Kurdistan; therefore it has to have a vision and future plans. It should not tie everything to the new government and the provincial administration in Sulaimani. We need a good opposition that can keep the hands honest.
On the other hand, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and PUK have to take the views of their members more seriously. The inside voices that call for “letting go of some posts for the sake of stability” must be heard. This means the PUK and KDP should be more generous when negotiating with Gorran and other parties.
