From the very early days of the fight against the Islamic State (ISIS), Iran has been on the frontlines in Iraq. Tehran has been supplying arms to the Iraqi forces. Iranian military advisors are with the Iraqis, drawing war plans and leading the fight on the ground. Most importantly, Iran was behind the creation of the Shiite militia modeled after their own Basij forces, and Iranian officials have more than once taken credit for this initiative.
One of Iran’s most senior generals, Hamid Taqavi was killed in Samarra in December. General Qasem Soleimani was seen walking ahead of Iraqi troops at the gates of Tikrit this week. And in December, the Mujahedin-e-Khalq group claimed that 7,000 Iranian troops were fighting in Iraq.
There are different interpretations for this large-scale Iranian involvement. Some might say it is to push ISIS away from its borders. Others have said Iran wants to help its Shiite brethren. Yet others call it a competition between the US and Iran for influence in Iraq.
All of that could be true. But there is another major reason for Iran’s investment in this war and that is to preserve Iraq’s territorial integrity and prevent it from falling apart. Iranian officials themselves testify to this idea. Iran’s presidential advisor and former intelligence minister said last week that Iraq is part of Iran and it cannot be divided. Senior Iranian commander Hossein Hamadani said last summer that it was Iran that was preventing Iraq and Syria from falling apart.
Even former Iraqi military intelligence chief Wafiq al-Samarrai said this week that Iran was now very popular in Iraq because it is fighting for Iraq’s territorial integrity. “If Iran continues to preserve the disintegration of Iraq into regions, I swear to God even the Baathists and nationalists will support them,” Samarri told the al-Arabiya TV. “What is important is the unity of Iraq.”
The idea of the partition of Iraq has been on the table for a number of years, so the question is: why is Iran so worried about it this time? The answer is ISIS. The longer ISIS stays in Iraq the closer that country would be to partition. In fact as soon as ISIS took over Iraq’s Sunni heartland last year, the topic of dividing Iraq into three states was raised again and more seriously than ever.
The Kurds said that Iraq was practically divided into three states. They argued that it was impossible to stay part of Iraq when overnight they were separated from it by the arrival of a terrorist group. The Kurdish president spoke of a referendum for independence and it seemed that everyone agreed with his plans. It wasn’t possible to remain part of an Iraq that you could only fly over by airplane through ISIS territory.
So the ISIS presence in central Iraq made partition inevitable and closer to reality and this is when Iran started to feel the heat. The Kurdish war with ISIS definitely halted the referendum project but didn’t kill it. Kurdish leaders and ordinary Kurds have said that when their war with ISIS is over they will resume the bid for independence.
But now, Iran seems to be working to unravel that plan. The Kurds only want to drive ISIS out of Kurdish territory, but Iran wants to drive it out of Iraq so that the Kurds don’t have that excuse anymore. If ISIS is gone the Kurds won’t be able to say they are separated from Iraq. Most importantly, Baghdad has given the Shiite militia official recognition so that when they show up on the southern borders of the Kurdistan Region, the Kurds can’t say they are not ready to talk to illegal militias.
One of Iran’s targets is the Kurds as much as it is ISIS. Tehran is getting Baghdad back on its feet and in a strong bargaining position. With ISIS gone, Baghdad would no longer put up with any talk of Kurdish independence: since the tide turned against ISIS in Diyala and Salahaddin, Iraqi leaders have reneged on their agreements with Erbil.
In this scenario where Iran is clearly going to be the master of Iraq for many more years, the Kurds’ strongest bargaining chip is their unity. The Peshmerga still have the world’s respect and the war with ISIS reinvigorated them. But the Kurdish leadership must transform this force into a national army with a central command. To deal with the post-ISIS Baghdad, the Kurds must mark their new borders, keep Kirkuk and all areas they won in the recent conflict and never put an inch of Kurdish territory in any negotiation plan with Baghdad.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
