Recently there has been much talk about Kurdish independence. The KRG has stated it will hold a referendum, likely in October, to decide the fate of the Kurdish region in Iraq. The PYD has already unilaterally declared the intent to form a federation within the Kurdish controlled areas of Syria. The Turkish Kurds continue to demand some form of autonomy at a time the PKK is increasing attacks against the Turkish government. Only the Kurds in Iran have been quiet, trying to move through the international political system, driven by the repressive regime in Tehran.
There is no question as to the desire of Kurds to be independent, their history is replete with attempts at independence and even the short lived Mahabad Republic evidenced this. The question has been and always will be the sustainability and survivability of an independent Kurdistan. It must be understood by all that recent history does not give a true picture that will answer these questions.
There is no doubt that the KRG has run a government in northern Iraq but the questions is, can they do it without the support of Baghdad, however limited, or be viable outside of the protection of being a part of Iraq. Would Turkey or Iran hesitate to attack a Kurdistan that does not have international protection? While the Kurdish government is in the midst of an economic crisis, how much worse would it be if there were no outlets for its oil to the world market. As brave and capable as the Syrian Kurdish fighters are could they withstand an all-out assault by Russian backed Syrian forces or the Turkish military? The PKK has grown and fought for over 30 years and are no closer to their aims then they were in the beginning.
Regardless of what referendums are held or declarations made, the Kurds will need to have the backing of a major power block. They will also need to have a unified plan. This does not mean the various Kurdish parties and factions need to think and act as one, but they need to understand that there can be differences of opinion while moving toward a common goal. The common goal of an independent state is going to be difficult and dangerous. It must be understood the world does not like change and new states are never easily accepted.
Following the Second World War most of the states that emerged had existed in the recent past. The only truly new state was Israel, and it has been under attack since the beginning. The breakup of the former Soviet Union released countries that had been under the yoke of Moscow but were none the less traditional nations. Kurdistan has never existed on the worlds maps and the world is happy the way things are.
The next difficult part of the creation of a country is defining its borders, and this will be most important for the new Kurdish country. Will Kurdistan be the three governorates that the world accepts today, Dohuk, Erbil and Sulaimani or will Kirkuk also be part of the new nation. What about Sinjar in Ninawa? These questions must be addressed prior to any referendum and accepted by the world at large. It must also be decided what role Baghdad will play. Does the current government of Iraq become irrelevant or need they provide some buy-in to the process? What international protection can be afforded to the new country to keep old enemies at bay?
Additional problems will arise within Syria as Assad has already said there will be no federated Syria. Should the PYD continue will there need to be an international agreement to decide if a Syrian Kurdish Federation should be barred from joining a Kurdish state formed by the KRG. Going back to the boundaries question what will the boundaries be for a federated Kurdish area. Is Raqqa or Aleppo to be considered? What leverage will the West have should Russia simply say they will support Assad. Under the current plan Syrian borders remain intact and this should keep Turkey somewhat under control.
While many Kurds see military victories as proof of their ability to declare themselves free and independent, as we have shown, there is a lot more then military power required to govern and be accepted. The Kurds in Iraq need to show the world a unified and functioning government. As before, they can argue and disagree but need to be able to provide basic services to the citizens. An open economic system will go a long way. Currently 80 percent of Iraqis receive pay from the government. Private enterprise must replace this system allowing a greater diversity amongst the citizens. If they are dependent on the government for food, clothing and shelter they will never be free to let the rulers know how they feel or what they want or need.
An independent Kurdistan is the desire and right of the Kurdish people but it will not come or be sustained unless they can convince the rest of the world that a new country will not disturbed the status quo.
Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
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