The death toll over the past three months in the conflict between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) rose by nearly 10 percent “as domestic political and regional dynamics propel the 32-year-old conflict deeper into a more violent trend,” reported Berkay Mandıracı, an analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG).
The ICG has been tracking the conflict since it resumed in the summer of 2015, recording casualties and trends in the conflict. Since July 2015, they have recorded the deaths of at least 2,301 – that includes Kurdish fighters, Turkish security forces, and civilians.
“This is a rate double that of the last major bout of violence, from July 2011 – December 2012, when less than 1,000 people were killed,” ICG’s report stated.
Though the coming winter may lead to a seasonal lull in the violence, the ICG believes that all signs point to the conflict worsening. It attributes the deterioration to three factors: “a deadlock in peace talks that showed promise in 2012-2013, polarised antagonists who believe a military solution is possible, and competition over northern Syria in which both sides are seeking maximum outcomes and competing for US support.”
The conflict, which was concentrated in urban areas in late 2015 and through the first five months of 2016, has shifted back towards rural areas, mainly in Hakkari and Şirnak provinces, along Turkey’s border with the Kurdistan Region and Iraq.
After the attempted coup of July 15, the ICG noted an increase in the violence of PKK tactics. “This was most likely partly related to its perception of weakness in the Turkish security apparatus. It could also have been a reaction to Ankara’s Euphrates Shield Operation,” in which Turkish forces crossed the border into northern Syria with the dual aim of clearing ISIS from its border and limiting advances being made by Kurdish forces in that country.
The ICG reported that the PKK used more improvised explosive devices (IEDs), including vehicle-borne IEDs (VBIEDs), and targeted more political figures with kidnapping, assault and killing after the coup.
Ankara has matched the PKK’s ramp up in tactics, convinced that the group could be defeated militarily. “Ankara has declared an ‘all-out war’, intensifying military operations and advancing its domestic crackdown against alleged PKK supporters,” the ICG stated, citing the recent arrests of pro-Kurdish mayors, the closure of Kurdish media outlets, and the arrests of Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) lawmakers.
“The zero-sum approach appears to be shared by the PKK leadership,” noted the ICG, adding that the PKK has threatened to return the conflict to the cities in recent months.
“As long as the parties hold to their maximalist positions,” the ICG warns, “the political compromise that will be needed to make peace will be delayed.”
