WASHINGTON DC – The resolution of the Kurdish question in Turkey under its first directly-elected president is the litmus test for Turkish stability and democracy, according to experts at a panel discussion at the Brookings Center in Washington.
The Kurdish question “is burning and ready to explode any moment,” Kadir Ustun, research director of the SETA Foundation in Washington, warned at the discussion, titled "President Erdogan: Turkey’s Election and the Future."
In elections last month, former prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) won 51.78 percent of the votes to become the first Turkish president to be elected directly by popular vote.
“The priority is to make headway within the Kurdish resolution process,” said Ustun, noting it had been delayed for a number of reasons, including last year’s Gezi park protests and the AKP corruption scandals that ignited a media explosion earlier this year.
“The process has slowed down, but now there is renewed push on this,” he added.
Abdullah Ocalan, the jailed leader of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), declared a ceasefire in its three-decade war for greater Kurdish rights in March 2013. The PKK began pulling out its fighters from Turkey shortly after, but the process has lapsed since then, with the Kurds accusing Ankara of dragging its feet.
Ustun warned that if Erdogan chose a more authoritarian approach during his presidency, the first casualty would be the peace process: “If Erdogan wants to go for an oriental despotism, he cannot move forward with the Kurdish question, which is burning and ready to explode any moment.”
Erdogan, who has won nine consecutive elections, has been credited with turning around the economy. But his leadership has come under heavy criticism by Western allies, following crackdowns on the media, protesters and dissidents.
“Now the question is: how can a Turkey that becomes more autocratic provide hope for solving the Kurdish problem? said Omer Taspınar, a nonresident senior fellow at Brookings and an expert on Turkey and its estimated 15 million Kurds.
“This is the paradox: can the president with centralized decision making, who wants to continue a hegemonic style of governance, provide hope for the most important issues of the country, such as human rights, democracy, minority rights and the Kurdish question?” Taspinar asked.
He believes that Erdogan needs the Kurds for his bid to change the constitution, in which more power is granted to the president. “Kurds have become a very powerful force in Turkey,” he said.
But he added that Erdogan is pursuing a “tactical Machiavellian” poicy, instead of a genuine path to authentically address the Kurdish issue.
“I don’t see institutional mechanisms behind solving the Kurdish problem, because solving the Kurdish problem requires a first-class democracy. It requires human rights, it requires checks and balances and it requires decentralization,” Taspinar said. “I don’t see Turkey evolving in that direction.”
Asked whether Ankara is concerned about PKK guerillas who have joined the Peshmerga forces of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) against the Islamic State, Ustun said: “Turkey wants the border to be demilitarized from the PKK and is quite happy PKK is leaving Turkish soil.”
He observed that Kurds are in a very good situation, not just in Turkey but also on the regional level, where they are playing a critical role in the entire region.
“History is on the side of the Kurdish movement when you look at the region -- in Syria, Iraq and Iran,” Ustun said.
“They are in a position to be kingmakers. In Turkey, Iraq and Syria they are playing a very critical role and they are in a very strong position. They are willing to negotiate with Erdogan, but I am not convinced that he would be able to solve this problem given the authoritarian tendencies we are seeing in Turkey.”
An estimated 40,000 people, mostly Kurds, have died in the conflict since the PKK launched an insurgency in 1984 for Kurdish rights in Turkey, where even speaking the Kurdish language was previously banned.
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