ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - A 30,000-strong Iraqi and Kurdish force has launched its offensive against an estimated 3,000 to 4,500 ISIS militants in Mosul, where approximately 1 million civilians are caught in the middle, eager to be freed from the brutal rule of the self-proclaimed Caliphate. Estimates of the number of ISIS militants in Mosul have steadily dropped over the months. In early March, Col. Christopher Garver, spokesperson for the US-led anti-ISIS coalition, estimated that there were less than 10,000 militants in the city. More recently, another coalition spokesperson Col. John Dorrian said there are between 3,000 and 4,500 ISIS fighters in Mosul, both foreign and local. Some have been killed - coalition airstrikes have targeted ISIS leadership in Mosul; 13 were killed in September alone, Dorrian announced at the end of the month. Many ISIS leaders have fled the city with their families in anticipation of the military offensive, Iraq’s then minister of defence, Khalid al-Obeidi, said in July, noting that most were going to Syria. Others have deserted the militant group and fled, with Turkey the most popular destination. “This very morning, three ISIS fighters have fled to Turkey,” the Mosul Eye, a blogger in Mosul and one of the few sources of information from the city, told Rudaw English earlier this month. They were local recruits, he added. Those militants remaining in the city are largely young, inexperienced Mosul teenagers. The Mosul Eye estimated that 90 percent of the militants who contributed to building the Caliphate are now gone - including the many Saudi fighters that once filled Mosul’s streets. The few that remain have again filled the streets, putting on a show of force for the civilian population. “They want to show themselves that they are ready and strong. But this is not true, many of the fighters are teenagers,” locally recruited, the Mosul Eye said. The large proportion of local fighters may bode well for hopes of a quick offensive if the liberation of Qayyara is any indication. When Iraqi forces retook the city in August, local ISIS militants deserted and only the foreigners stayed, fighting to their deaths, residents of the city told Rudaw. “The foreign ISIS militants were the real fighters and many of those ready to become suicide bombers were from France and the Caucasus,” said Omer Ibrahim, a Qayyara resident. “The local ISIS militants were deserting the battlefields.” “It was at 10pm when the ISIS militants deployed in the streets. The foreign militants went to the forefront to halt any advance from the Iraqi army,” said Mustafa Ali, another Qayyara native. “But at 12am, the Iraqi ISIS militants together with their families and civilians all fled to Hamam Ali. Only the foreign fighters stayed and did not give up.” Some of the civilians living in Mosul are prepared to fight ISIS, a man from Mosul told Rudaw English. He is living in Erbil and spoke on condition of anonymity to protect his family and friends still in the city and with whom he is in contact. People in some neighbourhoods have weapons in their homes, AK-47s and pistols, and are waiting for the offensive to begin, before they rise up and fight. The Iraqi air force has been periodically dropping leaflets over the city with messages of reassurance that the armed forces are liberating areas from ISIS and messages of advice, telling civilians to avoid militant positions and stay safe. The leaflets have received mixed reception from the people of Mosul. “Actually we think it is just a ‘paper,’” that has no sense, said the Mosul Eye. “But sometimes we tell our self that, yes they will come to liberate us.” The coalition of fighters now nearly encircling the city are also heavily drawn from local forces. The complete force is 30,000 strong, said Brett McGurk, US envoy to the coalition. It consists of Iraqi forces under control of Baghdad and Kurdish forces, backed by the international coalition. The US-led global coalition, of which 39 countries are involved in Iraq, providing military support, military aid, humanitarian aid and intelligence support, is coordinating with Baghdad and Erbil. They are carrying out airstrikes, arming and training local forces, and filling advisory role. There are more than 4,500 US forces currently in Iraq. A joint command centre of Iraqi, Kurdish, and coalition military leadership has been established to oversee the complete operation, Jabar Yawar, chief of staff and spokesperson for the Peshmerga ministry, said in a recent conference. But the buck stops with Baghdad, McGurk made clear. Any forces not under Baghdad’s control will not participate, he stressed in a recent press conference. Baghdad has a lot to prove in the liberation of Mosul. The Iraqi army famously disintegrated in the city when ISIS attacked in 2014. Thirty-thousand soldiers melted away in front of 1,500 militants. The ethnic diversity of the region coupled with the sectarian nature of the conflict have proved a challenge as every group wants to ensure that it has a role to play in the military offensive in order to protect their own people - not just from ISIS but also from their supposed allies. Nearly half the forces, some 14,000, are Nineveh tribal fighters, McGurk detailed, who have been trained and prepared for the offensive. Ankara, which has a small contingent of forces in Bashiqa, northern Iraq, where they have been training local fighters, has recently insisted that liberation of the city is impossible without Turkish participation - something Baghdad has rejected, calling the Turkish forces “occupiers.” The US, the leader of the international coalition working with Baghdad, and a NATO ally of Turkey, has delicately offered its support to Iraq. “Recent media reports have speculated on the role that international forces will play in the Iraqi operation to liberate Mosul. As we have repeatedly made clear, the United States supports Iraqi unity and sovereignty. To that end, we believe all international forces in Iraq should be there with the approval of and in coordination with the Government of Iraq, under the umbrella of the Coalition,” reads a press statement issued by US Department of State spokesperson John Kirby on October 11. Perhaps more contentious for the people of Nineveh and Mosul is the involvement of Iraqi Shiite militias. The Hashd al-Shaabi have repeatedly vowed that they will join the fight but that has raised concerns in many circles after allegations the militias carried out human rights violations against the Sunni population of Fallujah earlier this year. The Shiite militias were accused of beating, torturing, and killing people fleeing the fighting in Fallujah. An investigation is ongoing. “Those who are calling to exclude us from the Mosul operation have political goals,” a Shiite militia spokesperson Karim Nuri told Rudaw English in July. “We will participate in the operation.” “ISIS is afraid of us, that’s why our participation is very important and liberating other areas including Fallujah would have been impossible without us.” Atheel al-Nujaifi, former governor of Nineveh province and now head of the Nineveh Guard, the Sunni militia formerly known as the Hashd al-Watani, told Rudaw in June that locals fear the Shiite militia will carry out revenge attacks against the Sunnis, warning that the Sunni residents may feel more secure siding with ISIS in such a situation. "They think if Hashd al-Shaabi Shiite militia come to Mosul, they will avenge and torture them,” Nujaifi told Rudaw TV. “Possibly, some people will fight alongside ISIS when it comes to the choice between ISIS and Hashd al-Shaabi." Dr. Dylan O’Driscoll, a research fellow at the Erbil-based Middle East Research Institute (MERI), agrees. “The participation of Hashd al-Shaabi threatens both bringing justice and reconciliation processes in Mosul, as the acts of revenge that they have carried out have been well documented,” O’Driscoll told Rudaw English earlier this summer. “Due to these acts of revenge, people of Mosul might join the Islamic State to fight, as they truly fear the Hashd al-Shaabi and this will exacerbate the issue of sectarian conflict.” Some within Mosul say they are afraid of all the forces building up around their city. “We can't trust the government, we can't trust US, we can't trust anyone,” said the Mosul Eye. He said that no group has shown that they care about the people of Mosul, prioritizing their concerns. And ISIS has sown fear, telling people that the Shiite militias are coming to kill them and rape their women. “Simply, they are fighters with guns, and they think that Mosul and it's people have supported ISIS, and most of these tribal fighters have lost their brothers, fathers, etc. also they want to control the city after the liberation. It is all about power and history.” Everyone, Shia, Sunni, Christian, Yezidi, Kurds, they all have a reason to fight, he warned, stating, “Most likely there will be civil war in Mosul.” The Mosul Eye’s solution is for the city to come under international protection - either the United States or the United Nations. A man from Mosul now living in Erbil told Rudaw English anonymously he fears that the diverse population of Mosul will not be able to return to peace. "I want to say that in the past there was never an issue between Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds, Christians, Yezidis or Shabaks because Mosul has diverse communities. Mosul is a city for all of us,” he said. “But after liberation there will be trouble here and it is ethnic tension.” He echoed the call for the United Nations to become involved to provide security. Renad Mansour, a visiting scholar at Carnegie Middle East Center, confirmed that Iraqis have suspicions about the people of Mosul, questioning why they lived under ISIS rule for two and a half years when many others were able to escape. While inside Mosul, they are equally suspicious as the potential liberating forces each have their own agenda. But he doubted either the US or the UN would be accepted or successful in providing security for Mosul. The UN, Mansour told Rudaw English, does not have a good track record in Iraq where it has been “largely ineffective.” As for the US, he noted that the strongest international presence in Iraq is Iran, and they will not allow the US to play such a role in Mosul. Mansour pointed out that there are “many sides jockeying for control” but without a real strategy. There is no “unified vision” for the future of the country, he said.
