ERBIL, Kurdistan Region — Expectations are low for Prime Minister-elect Haider al-Abadi’s government, which critics say is unlikely to resolve long-standing disputes between Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish lawmakers.
Many see the power sharing cabinet as a mere reshuffling of ministerial posts, and maintain that despite the unity government, serious challenges lay ahead: two key security positions have yet to be filled, and Kurds have threaten to pull out of the government if Abadi doesn’t fulfill their demands in three months.
“This is largely a status quo government. This is not a radical change from the previous one,” said Kirk Sowell, a prominent Iraqi political affairs analyst.
The Shiite National Alliance was not constitutionally obliged to concede any of the most powerful ministries such as oil or defense — or indeed to share power at all — thanks to their resounding victory in April’s elections.
Abadi delivered on his promise to form an “inclusive” cabinet that represents Kurds and Sunni Arabs, but given that the prime minister and his allies hold most of the key posts, this new government doesn’t guarantee an easing of sectarian and ethnic divisions in Iraq.
Abadi’s next critical step will be his nomination of the heads of the security ministries, which he is expected to announce later this week. Khalid al-Ubaidi, a Sunni, is a frontrunner for defense minister. Regardless of who is appointed, however, Abadi will remain the commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
Hadi al-Amiri, head of the Badr Brigades, a powerful Shia militia, is not being considered for the Ministry of Interior. Despite enjoying the support of a broad Shia base, many Sunni leaders loathe Amiri, and his appointment would have marked a continuation — if not an escalation — of outgoing Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s sectarian policies.
The United States reportedly pressed Abadi not to nominate Amiri for the Interior Ministry, which Sunni Arab leaders claim has persecuted Sunnis and acted as a pro-Shia militia in the past.
“The United States has a veto,” said Sowell. “The Iraqi government needs weapons, ammunition, and air support. They’re not interesting in giving this to security services run by an Iranian proxy, a militia leader.”
Kurds neither gained nor lost in the new cabinet. Longtime Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari will become deputy prime minister. Former Deputy Prime Minister Rowsch Shaways has been named minister of finance, an important post for the Kurds who have not received their share of Iraq’s oil revenue since the beginning of the year.
Reluctant to join a government that cut off their budget (with a total estimated loss of $8 billion), Kurds are demanding that Baghdad make back payments to the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and implements Article 140 of the constitution, which outlines steps to settle the status of the disputed territories including oil-rich Kirkuk — all within the next three months.
Sowell isn’t convinced anything will come of the demands, telling Rudaw, “The Kurds needed something so that it looks like they haven’t completely surrendered. But what has Abadi offered them in terms of their substantive demands? Nothing, to my knowledge.”
Nor does he think that having Shaways as minister of finance is a guarantee the Kurds will get their money.
“If you read through the budget there are some points where the finance minister has a certain degree of discretionary authority, but these are limited circumstances. He can’t decide whether there will be payments to Erbil on his own,” he said.
Not many KRG leaders are celebrating. Mohammed Ihsan, the KRG representative in Baghdad, acknowledged that only Abadi himself could make the government truly inclusive.
“Abadi is going to be a photocopy of Maliki, or he can work with others,” Ihsan says. “Will there be a true Council of Ministers or just a prime minister? I think this will determine the future of Iraq; I think this will be the last government of Iraq if they don’t succeed.”
One of the major stumbling blocks for the Kurds is how to formulate their own demands regarding the disputed territories. Najmaldin Karim, the governor of Kirkuk and leader of the Kurdish Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), recently made the controversial statement that Kirkuk would need a “special status” within Iraq outside of the KRG because of its unique mixture of Kurds, Arabs, Turkmen and other minorities.
In addition to deviating from longstanding Kurdish claims to Kirkuk, his proposal contradicts the original provisions of Article 140, which calls for a census and referendum on whether the province will join the KRG or not.
“There’s a lack of unity within the KRG about Kirkuk,” said Sam Morris, a researcher at the Middle East Research Institute, an Erbil-based think tank.
Yet despite internal divisions on how to move forward with the disputed territories, Morris claimed there has been growing acceptance of eventual Kurdish independence — even for a Kurdistan that includes Kirkuk.
“Talking to politicians in Baghdad in April, there was a realization that independence was going to happen,” he said. “But they would say the red line was Kirkuk, which was totally non-negotiable. Now that red line has blurred slightly, and they might be willing to let go of Kirkuk.”
