SULAIMANI, Kurdistan Region - Top Kurdish officials have been meeting recently in Erbil to discuss the latest saga between the autonomous Kurdistan Region and Baghdad, but so far a possible Kurdish withdrawal from the Iraqi government has reportedly not been discussed.
A few days before the meeting in Erbil, Roj Nuri Shaways, Iraq’s deputy prime minster, had warned that Kurdish withdrawal from the Iraqi government is a possibility, over a related oil and budget row with the Shiite-led government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.
But Mahmoud Othman, a Kurdish MP in the Iraqi parliament, faults the Kurdistan Regional Government for not discussing the possibility in a meeting between KRG Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani and Kurdish MPs in Baghdad.
“What would the KRG lose if the Kurdish representatives withdraw from Baghdad, and will the KRG face a crisis in case of withdrawal from Baghdad?” he asked.
“The meeting only touched upon explaining the problems. It did not discuss withdrawal, possible scenarios after withdrawal and the impact of withdrawal. This is the task of the KRG and its institutions and they should study all possibilities,” Othman contends.
Since the 2003 overthrow of Saddam Hussein and greater autonomy for the Kurds, this is not the first time that the Kurdish people hear threats of withdrawing from Baghdad. Similar words were heard during the drafting of the Iraqi constitution and at the end of 2012, when Peshmarga forces and the Iraqi army were on the verge of a confrontation over Kirkuk.
Whenever the possibility of withdrawal from Baghdad is discussed with Kurdish MPs and ministers in Baghdad, they ask whether the Maliki government would collapse or survive if the threat were actually carried out. When Sunni MPs did withdraw from Maliki’s government, some acting ministers were appointed, and nothing really changed.
Heval Kwestani, an MP in Baghdad from the Kurdish Change Movement (Gorran), believes that since the Iraqi government is established on the basis of political agreements, Kurdish withdrawal would only disrupt the balance of the government and paralyze the process of democracy. “But it will not result in the collapse of the government in any way.”
One of the ways that Maliki’s government would collapse is if 51 percent of the MPs withdrew from parliament.
If the Kurds were to pull out, Kwestani wonders whether Sunni blocs would follow suit, because previously the Kurds refused to withdraw when Sunni MPs pulled out of the government.
“Even if the Sunnis agree to withdraw with the Kurds, the required 51 percent will not be achieved,” Kwesitani notes. He says at least one Shiite faction must join the boycott to reach the 51 percent threshold.
But Kwestani adds that a Kurdish withdrawal would be more effective than the Sunni move, even if it does not lead to the collapse of the government.
“The Kurds have a political and geographical entity and border points. A more transparent oil policy will further enhance Kurdistan’s economy. There are hundreds of foreign consulates and representatives (of foreign companies) in Erbil.”
Kwestani believes that the Kurds have only one important ministry in Baghdad, which is the ministry of foreign affairs, headed by Hoshyar Zebari. “However, in case of a Kurdish withdrawal, Maliki will appoint an acting foreign minister,” he explains.
But Yaseen Hassan, the former minister of state, believes that “Maliki cannot replace Hoshyar Zebari, because Zebari is very qualified and has been very successful in broadening Iraq’s diplomatic relations.”
Hassan says that Zebari has accomplished a lot and his influence is very clear, but it would be easy for Maliki to replace other Kurdish ministers with acting ministers. “After 2003, Baghdad realizes that the Kurdish existence in Baghdad is tactical and the Kurds are aware that Baghdad treats Kurdistan in a planned manner,” Hassan adds.
Hassan, who was a state minister until 2012, talked about the meetings of the Iraqi council of ministers headed by Maliki. He says that Maliki would pretend to play the role of mediator over the problems between Baghdad and Erbil.
The current tensions between Erbil and Baghdad come at a time when the Iraqi legislative elections are scheduled for April. The Kurds consider the polls as an important opportunity to alter the political equation in Iraq. However, Maliki and his State of Law coalition are hoping to emerge from the elections stronger than before.
Fuad Masoum, representative of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in the Iraqi parliament, says “it is not the right time to withdraw from Baghdad,” because “there are only two months left in the life of this government.”
Masoum claims that the Kurdish withdrawal would have been very effective “if all other ministers supported the Kurdish position, and if the election were not so close.”
But Othman outlines a clearer strategy: “Maliki’s real battle is to attract the Shiite votes as much as possible. If the KRG manages to provide the salaries of its employees for the next two months and does not negotiate that with Baghdad, it will have more leverage in negotiations with Baghdad after the election.”
