ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – The military defeat of the so-called caliphate of ISIS, one of the biggest threats to global peace and security, “does not appear likely to usher in a new era of stability,” according to the International Crisis Group, which noted a decline in effective governance that has widened splits in societies and created a void that is being filled by non-state actors.
Concerns over post-ISIS political instability and influence of non-state actors put Iraq on Crisis Group’s list of ten countries at risk of escalating violence in 2018, according to a report released by the conflict monitor this week.
The Crisis Group predicted that after pre-election rhetoric and the May 12 vote, Iraq will face a “prolonged and turbulent period” as parties endeavor to form a government.
A Chatham House analyst, Dr. Nussaibah Younis, recently told Rudaw that in Iraq’s fractured political landscape, Kurds could play kingmaker if they can work together and support an Iraqi prime ministerial candidate.
The Crisis Group highlighted concerns about the role of the Iranian-backed Hashd al-Shaabi, also known as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), which are cementing their local influence by recruiting from within communities and co-opting tribal leaders, are “creating a parallel model of rule” that echoes events in Iran during the early years of the Islamic revolution and will keep Baghdad weak.
They have been able to do so, especially in the disputed areas, because Baghdad does not have the capability to hold and govern these areas that were taken from the Kurdish forces, “making PMU rule a reality in many localities.”
The situation now is one where the party providing security is the party that “earns the right to govern.” This is highly unstable and the federal government must reassert control, the Crisis Group advised.
The solution, according to the Crisis Group, is for Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to work with those who oppose Iran’s influence, including Kurds and Sunnis, while courting Shiite religious leaders and deploying state security forces to disputed areas to reduce the role of the Hashd al-Shaabi there.
Demilitarization is also key, it added, suggesting that efforts be made to convert militia manpower into a massive reconstruction effort.
With respect to the Kurdistan Region, the Crisis Group said that internal disputes that surfaced after the referendum and the loss of the disputed areas has shaken up the Region. While the future is uncertain, “there is no doubt that it needs to refresh its leadership.”
New political parties and holding free and fair elections are the best way forward, it stated.
The Kurdistan Region is expected to hold elections in the first half of 2018. Two new political parties have been formed to contest the elections – the Coalition for Democracy and Justice (CDJ) led by veteran politician Barham Salih and the New Generation Movement led by businessman-turned-politician Shaswar Abdulwahid.
Iraq’s problems are part of a trend of “fragmentation” across the Middle East and North Africa, the Crisis Group found.
Civil conflict as well as clashes with ISIS continues in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, and the longstanding rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is heating up, as is the Israeli-Arab conflict.
“Multiplying and escalating conflicts are increasing fragmentation in the region,” it stated.
“As states weaken, non-state actors rise, stepping into security vacuums, seizing territory and gaining legitimacy by providing a modicum of stability to subject populations. These actors also frequently fuel ethnic and sectarian sentiment that generate future conflict,” read the Crisis Group’s report.
Concerns over post-ISIS political instability and influence of non-state actors put Iraq on Crisis Group’s list of ten countries at risk of escalating violence in 2018, according to a report released by the conflict monitor this week.
The Crisis Group predicted that after pre-election rhetoric and the May 12 vote, Iraq will face a “prolonged and turbulent period” as parties endeavor to form a government.
A Chatham House analyst, Dr. Nussaibah Younis, recently told Rudaw that in Iraq’s fractured political landscape, Kurds could play kingmaker if they can work together and support an Iraqi prime ministerial candidate.
The Crisis Group highlighted concerns about the role of the Iranian-backed Hashd al-Shaabi, also known as the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU), which are cementing their local influence by recruiting from within communities and co-opting tribal leaders, are “creating a parallel model of rule” that echoes events in Iran during the early years of the Islamic revolution and will keep Baghdad weak.
They have been able to do so, especially in the disputed areas, because Baghdad does not have the capability to hold and govern these areas that were taken from the Kurdish forces, “making PMU rule a reality in many localities.”
The situation now is one where the party providing security is the party that “earns the right to govern.” This is highly unstable and the federal government must reassert control, the Crisis Group advised.
The solution, according to the Crisis Group, is for Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to work with those who oppose Iran’s influence, including Kurds and Sunnis, while courting Shiite religious leaders and deploying state security forces to disputed areas to reduce the role of the Hashd al-Shaabi there.
Demilitarization is also key, it added, suggesting that efforts be made to convert militia manpower into a massive reconstruction effort.
With respect to the Kurdistan Region, the Crisis Group said that internal disputes that surfaced after the referendum and the loss of the disputed areas has shaken up the Region. While the future is uncertain, “there is no doubt that it needs to refresh its leadership.”
New political parties and holding free and fair elections are the best way forward, it stated.
The Kurdistan Region is expected to hold elections in the first half of 2018. Two new political parties have been formed to contest the elections – the Coalition for Democracy and Justice (CDJ) led by veteran politician Barham Salih and the New Generation Movement led by businessman-turned-politician Shaswar Abdulwahid.
Iraq’s problems are part of a trend of “fragmentation” across the Middle East and North Africa, the Crisis Group found.
Civil conflict as well as clashes with ISIS continues in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, and the longstanding rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia is heating up, as is the Israeli-Arab conflict.
“Multiplying and escalating conflicts are increasing fragmentation in the region,” it stated.
“As states weaken, non-state actors rise, stepping into security vacuums, seizing territory and gaining legitimacy by providing a modicum of stability to subject populations. These actors also frequently fuel ethnic and sectarian sentiment that generate future conflict,” read the Crisis Group’s report.
Comments
Rudaw moderates all comments submitted on our website. We welcome comments which are relevant to the article and encourage further discussion about the issues that matter to you. We also welcome constructive criticism about Rudaw.
To be approved for publication, however, your comments must meet our community guidelines.
We will not tolerate the following: profanity, threats, personal attacks, vulgarity, abuse (such as sexism, racism, homophobia or xenophobia), or commercial or personal promotion.
Comments that do not meet our guidelines will be rejected. Comments are not edited – they are either approved or rejected.
Post a comment