WASHINGTON DC - With Iraq on the verge of fragmentation, experts see a slow shift of US foreign policy towards the Kurds. But they note that the pace does not match the speed of unfolding regional events.
“Right Now in Congress there is a law, a bill is making through congress, I don’t know if it will get all the way through Congress, but it is to allow the United States to ship heavy equipment directly to the KRG. That is in the process now and I think because of the existential threat of ISIS, this bill may well go through,” said Michael Gunter, a professor of political science at Tennessee Technological University at a discussion titled, “The Future of the Kurds in the Middle East” at Washington’s Rethink institute.
“Unofficially we have been supplying equipments to the KRG and that of course will continue and probably grow. So the US policy is changing here, but it’s not changing quickly enough to meet the threat,” he added.
Last week, House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Ed Royce introduced a bill to arm the KRG directly. "Our critical partner in the fight against ISIL (another name for ISIS) is badly outgunned. Despite being armed mainly with antiquated weapons, the Iraqi Kurdish 'Peshmerga' forces have proven to be the most effective ground force currently fighting ISIL. For months, I have urged the Administration to urgently arm the Kurds. So too have many others in Congress. This important legislation will finally allow the 190,000-strong force to get the firepower it needs to effectively fight this brutal terrorist organization," said the congressman in a statement on November 20.
According to the expert, who has authored 11 books on the Kurds, there is no such country called Iraq, presently, but rather three distinct regions that reflect three different ethno-sectarian populations.
“I have been saying that Iraq is a kaput. It’s a former Iraq,” he said. “The United States foreign policy still sees Iraq and the United States is still trying to continue Iraq. It’s just a losing proposition,” he added.
“We really have three entities here – Shiastan, which claims to be Iraq, Sunnistan which is ISIS and the KRG,” he added.
The locations of Iraq’s internal conflicts mirror the ethno-sectarian borderlines that have turned the country into three major zones in the south, center and the north. The United States continues to support a united Iraq at a high cost of blood and treasure and avoids arming the Peshmerga directly, who have been a major force in pushing back the IS in Iraq and Syria.
"The United States has to ship some more equipment to the KRG. But we cannot do that because the law says the American military aid has to go through Baghdad and of course Baghdad does not want to give too much military aid,” said Gunter.
The US is also concerned that empowering the KRG could shortcut the KRG’s road towards official independence -- something the Barack Obama administration continues to object to for unsubstantiated fears that a Kurdish state could bring more turmoil and potentially increase Iran’s influence in the rest of the country.
Along with the other challenges facing Kurdistan, Gunter viewed ISIS as a major threat to the KRG because of its military might, compared to the KRG.
“Of course ISIS is a challenge. ISIS almost killed the KRG, which was a shock to all of us. Some of the problem, from what I understand, is that the United States supplied ISIS with latest technologies through the Iraqi army...whereas the Kurds were not being given the latest technologies militarily. So it’s one reason why ISIS stood 20 miles away from the airport in Erbil.”
Speaking on the delisting the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) from terrorist organization lists by the US and EU, panelists believed that despite the fact the PKK is fighting ISIS, it would remain on the terrorist list.
I think that will be a long shot. I think a clear distinction was made in the minds of the State Department between helping the current dramatic situation with the YPG. But there is a real concern with the US- Turkish relations. My assessment would be ‘no,’ there will not be a strong push by the United States to remove the PKK from the list of the terrorist organizations, Versa Eccarius-Kelly a professor of Comparative Politics and Associate Dean at Siena College in New York said during her presentation.
Gunter also concurred that the PKK would remain on the terrorist lists, but encouraged Turkey to move towards removing the PKK from its terrorist list to pave the way for other countries to follow suit.
I think the US will keep the PKK on the terrorist list, so will the EU, as long as Turkey does. It’s up to Turkey to make the first move here. I encourage the Turkish government to do so because you are not negotiating with terrorists normally and Turkey is negotiating with the PKK. A major move by the Turkish government is to delist the PKK and once Turkey does that the US and EU follow,” he explained.
After a three-decade insurgency for greater Kurdish rights in Turkey, the PKK has entered negotiations with the Turkish government since last year, hoping to find a peaceful settlement for the Kurdish question in Turkey.
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