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ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – At the moment, the balance of power is weighted heavily in Baghdad’s favour, with the KRG economically desperate for its budget share from the Iraqi government, but that may shift after the May 12 elections when the Kurds could play the role of kingmaker in Iraq’s fractured political landscape, predicted Dr. Nussaibah Younis, associate fellow at British think tank Chatham House.
Baghdad is using Erbil’s dire economy “to its advantage” in ongoing negotiations between the two governments, Younis told Rudaw’s Hiwa Jamal.
But if the KRG can hold on until after the elections, Iraqi parties may court them to join a coalition, giving Kurds the power, if the Kurdish parties can work together and collectively support an Iraqi prime ministerial candidate.
Younis spoke with Iraq’s Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi at Chatham House on Monday. He reported that Erbil and Baghdad have reached about 70 percent agreement on issues dividing them. The main stumbling block is Khurmala oil field, she relayed.
Khurmala is part of the Kirkuk oil base and was seized by the KRG in 2008. Both Iraq and Kurdistan claim it as their own.
Oil has long been a contentious issue between Erbil and Baghdad. When the Kurdistan Region began exporting its oil independently, in the face of Baghdad’s ire, many saw the move as a step on the road to independence.
Giving control back to Baghdad will be “emotionally” difficult, Younis predicted. But from Baghdad’s perspective, they don’t see that the KRG should have a better deal than Basra. And the “economically weak” Kurdistan Region is too dependent on the volatile commodity.
“Being overly reliant on natural resources is just a formula for failure,” said Younis, arguing that the KRG should cut its bloated payroll and diversify in order to begin investing in the Region.
Baghdad is using Erbil’s dire economy “to its advantage” in ongoing negotiations between the two governments, Younis told Rudaw’s Hiwa Jamal.
But if the KRG can hold on until after the elections, Iraqi parties may court them to join a coalition, giving Kurds the power, if the Kurdish parties can work together and collectively support an Iraqi prime ministerial candidate.
Younis spoke with Iraq’s Oil Minister Jabbar al-Luaibi at Chatham House on Monday. He reported that Erbil and Baghdad have reached about 70 percent agreement on issues dividing them. The main stumbling block is Khurmala oil field, she relayed.
Khurmala is part of the Kirkuk oil base and was seized by the KRG in 2008. Both Iraq and Kurdistan claim it as their own.
Oil has long been a contentious issue between Erbil and Baghdad. When the Kurdistan Region began exporting its oil independently, in the face of Baghdad’s ire, many saw the move as a step on the road to independence.
Giving control back to Baghdad will be “emotionally” difficult, Younis predicted. But from Baghdad’s perspective, they don’t see that the KRG should have a better deal than Basra. And the “economically weak” Kurdistan Region is too dependent on the volatile commodity.
“Being overly reliant on natural resources is just a formula for failure,” said Younis, arguing that the KRG should cut its bloated payroll and diversify in order to begin investing in the Region.
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