ISIS in Iraq: A shadow of its former self

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region—A picture of a diminished Islamic State (ISIS) in Iraq is emerging from recent reports and statistics.

As Peshmerga and Iraqi troops prepare for a major offensive to retake Mosul and loosen ISIS’ grip in Iraq, indications are that the terrorist group have all but conceded defeat.

In the last week alone, ISIS has suffered mass desertion and executed dissenters while a captured militant described the group as “weakened.” Experts believe that many of the leadership have relocated to Libya, leaving dwindling numbers in Iraq and Syria.

United States defense statistics released earlier this month indicate that the number of ISIS militants in Iraq and Syria had fallen to between 19,000 and 25,000, down from earlier estimates of up to more than 30,000 fighters.

It is suspected that ISIS, commanders especially, are seeking safety in Libya.

"Some of their members, especially those with long-term importance to ISIS, are taking refuge here [in Libya]”, intelligence chief of Misrata, Ismail Shukri, told the BBC. “They view Libya as a safe haven."

Those militants left behind appear to be unskilled and afraid.

A volunteer bomb diffuser with the Peshmerga, Dr. Sulaiman Saeed, has observed a decrease in the quality of ISIS’ explosive devices.  “A year ago, their bombs were being made by specialists,” he said. “But those we saw in [the recent liberation campaign in] Shingal have not been made by specialists. I guess the professionals are dead in ISIS, and those who work for them now are their third generation.”

An ISIS militant, Saad Sulaiman Ali, captured by Kirkuk security forces last week confirmed that the terrorist group is a shadow of what it was.  “Everything is different from what it used to be,” he stated. “They are weakened now.” Ali also noted that ISIS is lacking in weapons, ammunition and explosives.

The remaining militants may have seen the writing on the wall and are willing to risk the threat of execution by deserting their posts instead of facing near certain defeat.

At least 100 militants fled Mosul on Sunday according to Saeed Mamuzini, who led the office of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in Mosul before the city was overrun by ISIS. “ISIS morale is at an all time low. People are scared,” Mamuzini reported. “ISIS militants too.”

Mamuzini indicated that among those who abandoned their posts were seven commanders. The desertion of commanding officers brings a more serious problem for the ISIS leadership. A rudderless band of militants will be unable to offer little resistance to the forthcoming liberation offensive that Peshmerga and Iraqi troops are gearing up for.