‘ISIS is going to lose’ US envoy tells Erbil panel

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – Stuart Jones, the United States ambassador to Iraq, was forceful in his optimism about the fight against the Islamic State as the second day of the MERI Forum 2015 kicked off, although fellow panelists were quick to identify the challenges ahead.

“My message today is ISIS is losing the conflict and is going to lose,” Jones told the audience at a discussion titled “Winning the war against ISIS: Visions and Strategies,” the first of three sessions to be held Wednesday in Erbil by the Middle East Research Institute.

To reinforce his promise of victory against the terrorist group, Jones cited the impact of airstrikes, the role of Kurdish Peshmerga and had high praise for the role of the Shiite militias known as the Hashd al-Shaabi, or Popular Mobilization Units.

“We should also acknowledge the role of Hashd al-Shabi fighters and the sacrifices they have made in this conflict,” said Jones, in an unexpected nod to the groups which have open ties to Iran and have made anti-US comments in the past.

Jones mentioned recent military successes in the oil refinery town of Baiji and the ISIS-held city of Hawilja, in Kirkuk province, as examples of the change of momentum in the military fight against the jihadists.

“A few months ago, there were reports that Daesh will capture Baghdad. Today, Daesh is not near Baghdad and they are in state of defeat,” Jones said.

The ambassador’s remarks were echoed by panelist David Pollock from the Washington Institute who said the ongoing fight by local forces such as the Peshmerga and Hashd al-Shaabi has been widely supported by the 62 countries that have formed the anti-ISIS coalition since last year.

“Based on an actual public opinion poll I personally conducted, Daesh has almost no supports,” said Pollock who conducted his survey in Shiite as well as Sunni countries such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait.

“The percentage of people who expressed their support were less than 10 percent, usually only 5 percent, which means a real minority,” Pollack said.

Panelists from the Kurdistan region and Iraq were more cautious about the threat of ISIS. Qubad Talabani, deputy prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, expressed concern about the political, social and economic issues that led to the rise of the Islamic State, and said he was also worried about the post-ISIS era.

"Several years ago, people in Mosul, parts of Salahaddin, and Anbar were left frustrated by failure of politics and, ultimately Deash benefited from that sense of frustration," Talabani said.

He continued that people support ISIS for two reasons: they are either afraid or they think ISIS is the only group who can represent their interests.

He believed that in order to win against ISIS there must be a balance between military solutions and political, social, and economic solutions. As an example, Talabani said the campaign to liberate the city of Mosul should not be launched until questions about its governance and rebuilding were answered.

Sherwan Al-Waili, security advisor to the Iraqi president, pointed to deep flaws in the Iraqi security apparatus that must be addressed if the fight against the Islamic State is to be won.

 “The restructuring of the Iraqi security system is a must,” he said.