The successful early morning raid on an ISIS prison near Hawija by a combined force of United States Special Forces and Kurdish Peshmerga appears to have diverged from the normal current role of US support. The US forces were sent in an advice and assist capacity, providing airlift capability, intelligence, logistics, and airstrike support. The general rules of engagement for US forces is to fire only in self-defense and to avoid direct combat. A US soldier, MSgt Joshua Wheeler, was killed during the engagement that freed 69 prisoners, including 20 members of the Iraqi security forces. While the American soldiers have never been reluctant to engage ISIS, the American command structure has been adamant about holding them back, what has changed? While a single soldier’s death in combat, while tragic, is not unusual the circumstances call somethings into question.
One of the first things to figure out is why the US would support an operation into Hawija with Kurdish forces since Hawija, according to Iraqi and US maps, is not within the borders of the KRG. According to reports the KRG requested the mission after learning that the prisoners were to be executed and that there were believed to be Kurds among them.
It appears that the operation was launched without the advanced knowledge or coordination with Iraqi Security forces command. This despite the fact that there is a joint operations command center in Baghdad that is supposed to provide coordination on ops.
It was reported that US forces were only to provide advice and assistance along with other support. However the size of the US force, up to 30 according to some reports, would be much larger than a normal advisory unit.
It was further reported that the US forces only engaged when the Kurdish forces were pinned down and under heavy fire. This is also out of the norm and beyond the rules of engagement as there were helicopter gunships and close air support in the area which could have suppressed ISIS fire.
All of this adds up to a potential change in US policy in regards to use of US forces. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter informed the press that this was a planned operation and had been cleared by the National Security Council and briefed to the President, and that it is not to be seen as a shift but a onetime response to the KRGs request.
Regardless of Secretary Carter’s protestation there have been a number of recent events that would point to a change US policy. The recent reintroduction of Russia into the region, both as a supporter of Iranian desires and a partner with Syria’s Assad in the civil war. The failure of US attempts to train the Iraqi Security forces and to arm and train an anti-Assad force in Syria. The US recently made an airdrop of weapons and ammunition to the Syrian Kurds and Syrian Rebels. While using the Turkish airbase in Incirlik, they are having problems with the Turkish military and government attacking Kurdish locations, not only the PKK in Iraq but the US supported YPG in Syria. The Iraqi government is more under the influence of Iran and its Shi’a proxies, both militia and MP’s. Russia has been invited to the joint intelligence center in Baghdad and the PM is under pressure to ask for Russian air support fighting ISIS.
All of this plus the internal pressure the US administration is facing in regards to looking weak on foreign policy and US voters upset over the Iran nuclear deal, in a run up to an election, may open the door for more robust and direct US military action. The US has also announced that US forces will stay on longer in Afghanistan.
The timing of all this may also be indicative. While indicting that this was done at the request of the KRG because of the potential of imminent mass executions, it must be cited that ISIS has been conducting mass executions for some time. Secretary of State Kerry is concluding meetings with King Abdullah II of Jordan, Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian authority and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over problems in Jerusalem and will then meet with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss Syria. Turkey has just also requested that the PYD in Syria be declared a terrorist organization. The PYD is the political authority for the YPG. Any such declaration, if accepted by the UN will disrupt US support to the YPG. This last is however unlikely to occur but does indicate the problems faced by the US in any support of Kurdish interest.
While the attack on the prison near Hawija may be a one off incident, more likely it is a part of the continuing change of US foreign policy forced on a reluctant administration by the actions of Russia, Iran, and other outside actors. The retention of forces in Afghanistan, the decision to directly arm Kurds and Syrian rebels vice building a rebel force from scratch, and direct support of Kurdish Peshmerga without regard to Baghdad.
Should this be the case, it is indeed a game changer and introduce more uncertainty into a volatile region. It would also begin to reverse Russian and Iranian influence and change the way the US sees the Kurds in relation to Baghdad.
Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.
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