The United States recently expanded the war on ISIS to Libya through air attacks on ISIS targets in that country. The US, Russia and other nations have launched attacks on ISIS over the last years with some spectacular results in body counts. Russia has not restricted its attacks to ISIS and continues to attack what it considers terrorist targets in Syria, targets the US considers rebels and allies. Turkey has used its air force to mostly attack Kurdish bases in both Syria and Iraq, considering the Kurds terrorists. The schizophrenia of the West considers the Turkish Kurds terrorist, the Syrian Kurds allies and the Iraqi Kurds as partners and part of the Iraqi government.
While the war expands so does the attempts by the various parties to hold peace talks. The last two attempts ended in failure and a supposed deadline for a ceasefire came and went with an increase in fighting. While the air attacks from the western air forces have led to successful action against ISIS in Iraq they have not been able to sustain momentum by the Iraqi army. Only in the north while supporting Kurdish Peshmerga has there been effective action, but limited to the Kurdish region. This is true in Syria as well as US air strikes have helped the YPG expand their hold on the region designated as Kurdish.
For the Syrian Kurds to expand beyond what the west considers their territory they needed the Russians. This help has allowed expansion toward a contiguous Kurdish region that will connect the Afrin Canton with Kobane Canton along the Turkish border. Turkey has begun artillery attacks against the Kurds in order to stop this, not wanting another autonomous Kurdish region on its border.
Both the YPG and Russia have stated that there has been no coordination between them and that all YPG actions have been known to the US. Russian actions no the less have helped the YPG by targeting potential enemy fighters in the path of the Kurds. What is more important is the results of Russian activities versus those of the US coalition. Russia has reinvigorated a moribund Syrian government and its army into a successful defender of its territory. This took the infusion of not only air but ground forces as well. While Russia claims to have a limited number of ground forces in Syria there are reports that their presence has increased and have had an effect on the battlefield. In addition to Russian boots on the ground there is also Iranian IRGC forces and forces of Lebanese Hezbollah.
The US and other Western forces have limited their troops to training and advisory rolls, with the exception of some Special Forces operating with Kurdish forces, this has resulted in an ineffective use of force and the continued existence of Shi’a militias, trained and controlled by Iran limping along in Iraq. History has shown, since the advent of the airplane, that air power is only one aspect of warfare and that no war can be won from the air.
If the West is to be successful in its war on ISIS, it must take lessons from Russia, there must be an active and effective ground war in order to defeat your enemies. The question now for the West is, is it too late? Russia has committed to the defense of Assad and has forces in place. Recently both Saudi Arabia and Turkey indicated they were ready to send ground troops into which resulted in a warning from Russia that this could escalate into World War Three.
It is doubtful that Russia would make major attacks on western interest but it could and will expand the war in order to hurt the Saudi’s oil production or export capabilities in order to raise the world wide price of oil, or take actions that will scare the west into believing this will happen. If the west remains adamant about not committing or supporting an effective ground campaign this is likely to happen.
The Russians are not warlike barbarians who will take the world over the cliff, but neither are they stupid. There is a plan and part of it involves shoring up Syria and showing the world that they will support their allies and fight their enemies. Recent increases in Russian presence in Armenia is a concern of both Turkey and it NATO allies. This is also true for increased arming of separatist forces in Ukraine. Unless the rest of the world shows some resolve in supporting its friends they may find themselves very much on the defensive. This support will require a new view of the world to include a free and independent Kurdistan and a commitment of military force large enough to defeat ISIS and to dissuade confrontation with Russia.
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