It has been an eventful few weeks in the war against Islamic State (ISIS). From Fallujah in Iraq all the way to the coastal city of Sirte in Libya the militants are on the defensive against their many enemies. As it continues to lose battles on all fronts however it is worth bearing in mind it has yet to lose the war. Having had two years to fortify their key stronghold cities of Mosul and Raqqa, the group will doubtlessly seek to put up a fight in defense of these areas. Presently Kurdish-led forces are putting further pressure on those strongholds. In northern Iraq the Kurdish Peshmerga recently captured at least nine villages east of Mosul from ISIS while in Syria the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are encircling the key northwestern city of Manbij in a bid to cut ISIS completely off from the Turkish border. They have also advanced into the northern countryside of Raqqa province. The Iraqi Army have made headway against ISIS in Anbar and are currently besieging the group in the remaining city it holds in that province, Fallujah. Also the Iraqi Army are inching forward on the Makhmour front – from where they eventually plan to launch the ground operation to liberate Mosul in coordination with the Peshmerga, who are to play a supporting role in the operation. While these offensives are inflicting defeats on ISIS, the major battles are likely still ahead. ISIS has used the two years it has occupied Mosul and Raqqa to fortify their positions in these cities and, as its enemies get closer, it will be increasingly willing to put up a forceful fight to the death. Over the course of the past year the group has made many tactical withdrawals when it was outnumbered and outgunned by its opponents. In Shingal, most of the ISIS militants withdrew as a vastly superior Peshmerga force, backed by US airpower, overwhelmed them. They likely calculated it would be better to withdraw their militants to somewhere they could put up a more formidable fight rather than have them killed trying to hopelessly hold onto a peripheral part of their self-styled state. Similarly the group has been forced back in northeastern Syria, unable to even keep a foothold in Hasakah province after the SDF forced them from Al-Shaddadi last February. As they are pushed back to their strongholds, it is probable that ISIS will put up a much more bitter fight to the death – which is something its various enemies will need to be prepared for. As ISIS is being pushed back along its fronts in Iraq and Syria, the United Nations-backed government in Libya, a country which has been paralyzed by internal strife, organized militias for an ongoing offensive to liberate ISIS’s Sirte stronghold, which the militants seized last year. It was reported earlier this year that many of ISIS’ leaders in Iraq and Syria had relocated to Libya. If the Libyans can successfully deny them a stronghold there then the remaining militants in Iraq and Syria will be denied at least one alternative stronghold to flee to. All these factors signify that the group will put up a tough fight as it feels its back being pushed to the wall. When forced into a corner they may well increase their efforts to turn the various forces fighting them against each other. For the last six months it seems ISIS has been trying to lure Turkey into getting directly involved in the Syrian war through bomb attacks in its major cities and continuous rocket attacks on the Turkish border town of Kilis. ISIS likely hopes that if the Turks do retaliate by launching a ground campaign, there is a good chance they will clash with the Syrian Kurds, jeopardizing the fight against ISIS and in doing so relieve pressure on Raqqa. Similarly ISIS hopes that having the Shiite-majority Hashd al-Shaabi militia enter Sunni-majority areas – especially Anbar and Nineveh – will spark a much larger Sunni-Shiite sectarian war which will further destabilize Iraq and give ISIS a chance to endure amid the chaos, thus averting, or at least postponing, total defeat. Paul Iddon is a Rudaw reporter based in Erbil, Kurdistan Region.
