In the recent meeting in Hamburg between US President Trump and Russian President Putin it was announced an understanding and framework for a Syrian ceasefire was worked out. This is not the first ceasefire to be announced in Syria and none have held. This is however the first to be negotiated at this level. The YPG has been the most successful military unit to engage in Syria and are currently being assisted by American Special Forces advisors as well as being provided in some cases with air cover by the US. The Russians have been in full support of the Syrian government and have provided support in attacks on Syrian rebels, ISIS and YPG positions. With the fall of the ISIS strong hold in Mosul, Iraq and the likely near-term fall of the ISIS capitol Raqqa, Syria, the question is to what end is the ceasefire. ISIS is the common enemy of both the US and Russia and a ceasefire that leaves both sides free to attack ISIS would shorten the timeline for its ultimate destruction. Then what.
Standard Russian military doctrine does not allow for a long-term ceasefire, defense is nothing more than a pause prior to the resumption of the offense. Once ISIS is defeated as a military force what will the US and Russia do? No one expects ISIS to go away, they will return to their roots as a hit and run terrorist organization. Will the US then have a reason to remain in Syria and will the Russian have a reason to honor a ceasefire? The final resolution regarding the status of Syrian Kurds must be worked out before this happens. It is unlikely that the Kurds will be allowed to retain all the territory they have won, but what will the borders be? Should the Kurds in Iraq win their independence what effect will that have on Syria?
The Russians have opposed any form of regime change and will shore up Assad and insist Syria remain as it was before the rebellion. The ceasefire in this instance is indeed temporary and Syria and Russia will resume the offence against the FSA as well as the YPG should the YPG insist on retaining land or full autonomy. Turkey will then have a free hand to continue its war on the Kurds.
The Kurds have fought and won a lot in this fight but are now dependent on Russia’s acceptance of a long-term ceasefire and the US willing to remain in Syria to help. The outlier is Jordan, now in a position to act as peace keeper, if allowed to do so. This will all depend on Russia willing to accept a new Syria, smaller but likely more stable. There is of course Turkey and Iran, but they must be dealt with separately, but they must be dealt with.
Standard Russian military doctrine does not allow for a long-term ceasefire, defense is nothing more than a pause prior to the resumption of the offense. Once ISIS is defeated as a military force what will the US and Russia do? No one expects ISIS to go away, they will return to their roots as a hit and run terrorist organization. Will the US then have a reason to remain in Syria and will the Russian have a reason to honor a ceasefire? The final resolution regarding the status of Syrian Kurds must be worked out before this happens. It is unlikely that the Kurds will be allowed to retain all the territory they have won, but what will the borders be? Should the Kurds in Iraq win their independence what effect will that have on Syria?
The Russians have opposed any form of regime change and will shore up Assad and insist Syria remain as it was before the rebellion. The ceasefire in this instance is indeed temporary and Syria and Russia will resume the offence against the FSA as well as the YPG should the YPG insist on retaining land or full autonomy. Turkey will then have a free hand to continue its war on the Kurds.
The ceasefire itself centers in the south, along the Syrian, Jordanian and Israeli borders and in effect leaves the Kurdish section on its own. The impact of a ceasefire that is supported by Jordan and Israel is important to the Kurds as both countries in various forms support the Kurds. A successful ceasefire will have ramifications across the region and will empower the Kurds in their dealings with both Damascus and Ankara. Central to this however is the presence of both US troops and forces from the EU. Regardless of political ideology, stability in the region is paramount to regional actors, the US and Europe. Security across the world is dependent on a stable Middle East. The Kurds are a central link in this whether they wish to accept the mantle or not.
The Kurds have fought and won a lot in this fight but are now dependent on Russia’s acceptance of a long-term ceasefire and the US willing to remain in Syria to help. The outlier is Jordan, now in a position to act as peace keeper, if allowed to do so. This will all depend on Russia willing to accept a new Syria, smaller but likely more stable. There is of course Turkey and Iran, but they must be dealt with separately, but they must be dealt with.
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