Russia is building a regional coalition to include Syria, Iran and Iraq. Iraq has also stated it would welcome Russia’s assistance in attacking ISIS positions inside that country. Looking past the good news of a new partner in the fight against ISIS there appears to be a new chapter in the cold war with similar tactics and end game. Russian fighters have tested Turkish air defenses by flying into Turkish air space. Russian have flown toward US fighters in Syria turning just outside the range of US air-to-air missiles. Elsewhere Russia has tested US and European reaction in the air and at sea. The Russian Navy has just entered the fray by launching cruise missiles from the Caspian Sea over Iran and Kurdistan to hit targets in Syria.
Russia’s stated purpose is to support the legitimate government of Syria and to join in the defeat of ISIS. Shia lawmakers in Baghdad are calling on the Prime Minister to invite Russia into Iraqi airspace to bomb ISIS targets inside of Iraq. Claiming that the US led coalition has been ineffective and lacks the capacity to assist in the ground phase of a war on ISIS, the Iraqi government is likely to make the request.
In recent articles on Rudaw I have tried to analyze Russian intent in Syria and its impact on the region. I speculated that the interest of Russia would be best served by attacking Assad’s near enemies, the FSA and potentially Kurdish fighters instead of ISIS. Currently I am half correct. The initial airstrikes were against FSA and other anti-Assad forces. Some follow-on attacks did include ISIS location but to date most have been against forces being supported by the west, mostly by the US. Currently the Kurds have not been attacked and it appears that Russia is not likely to do so in the near future, but I have followed them to long to trust them.
All military operations have both short term and long term goals. The short term Russian goal is twofold and somewhat obvious. First to shore up Assad and second to impose itself once again into the Middle East. Beyond this is reducing or removing United States influence, being able to sit on the oil distribution routes to Europe and the rest of the world, and continuing turmoil in the region.
What then is Russia’s long term goals? First they need to consolidate the gains made in the Crimea and in Ukraine. For that to happen NATO needs to be occupied on other problems. Second they need to fix their economy which has tanked as it is dependent on oil, so causing a crisis in the Middle East has always sent oil prices soaring. Last they need the world to know they will resort to the military option if necessary and not just in the near abroad.
This last is important to understand and it has nothing to do with Russian desire to fight terrorism or save the region from ISIS. The United States, under the current administration, has stated over and over that it will not involve US ground forces in the region other than in a small advisory role. This in effect says the US has no role, and Russia understands this. Removing the military option from foreign policy is counter to every lesson from the past.
The ultimate intent of Putin’s Russia is to reestablish its political position in the world and if possible recoup territory it lost when the Soviet Union collapsed. Putin annexed parts of Georgia and fully annexed the Crimea and is securing the eastern portion on Ukraine. Putin saw the weakness of NATO and is moving to Syria to secure some control of the eastern Mediterranean. Russia will no doubt accept the Iraqi government’s invitation to begin operations and ultimately replace the US coalition. In so doing it will help maintain the Shia portion of the country and assist Iran in arming and training the various militias. What Russia will not likely do, in either Syria or Iraq, is defeat ISIS. It will push ISIS back and contain it in designated areas but ISIS is the excuse for Russia and Iran to continue to exert influence.
Unlike the United States, Russia has no attachment to the Iraqi government and no agenda to keep Iraq whole. The Kurds in the north will find this a genuine blessing in the short term as it will allow for independence and will also make them more strategic to Turkey as a buffer against both ISIS and a Russian controlled Iraq.
Turkish President Erdogan has recently visited Moscow and is now reversing course and saying that Assad may be allowed to stay in power until a permanent solution is arrived at. This places the Syrian Kurds in a strange position vis-a-vie Turkey. As long as Russia supports Assad and the west refuses to force the issue the Kurds now also buffer Turkey from ISIS, which they had been supporting as long as it looked like they could take Assad out.
What will happen in the future remains clouded and dependent on political change or stagnation in Europe and the United States. Russia may be getting into a quagmire as President Obama said. The last time Russia did so, in Afghanistan it took nine years to extract itself. Syria is not Afghanistan and the region will look a lot different in nine years.
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