In retaliation for the downing of one of its bombers Russia has begun a series of economic sanctions. These sanctions will have an impact on both Turkey and Russia. The list of sanctioned products put out by Russia is no surprise and in fact does not encompass the total of what was threatened. This is good news and if it is the end of threats and counter threats it would be wonderful. It is however likely just a beginning, not an end.
The fact is that the Russian reprisals on Turkey began shortly after Turkish F-16s downed a Russian plane. The Russians continued their attacks on Turkman fighters and villages in support of Syrian military operations and in fact intensified and came very close to the Turkish border in doing so. The Russians flew one of their fighters over Israeli air space which was simply escorted out, a show of how such mistakes should be handled. The Russians further intend to escort their future bombing raids with fighter escort in addition to increases in air defense missile systems in the region which would range both Turkey and coalition air space.
Other potential actions by Russia could include a closer working relationship with Syrian Kurds as well as the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq. This would be a difficult decision for Russia since their strongest ally in the region, Iran, also has an uneasy relationship with its own Kurdish population. The KRG has welcomed Russia into the fight with ISIS but itself must be careful having spent time cultivating a strong business relationship and a grudging political alliance with Turkey.
It is unlikely Russia will give direct military aid to the YPG, at least overtly, but supporting its autonomy and expansion through Damascus would both increase its standing with the Kurds and be a slap at Turkey. It could also widen the gap between the Kurds and the anti-Assad militia’s allowing Russia to continue to strike them and ignore ISIS.
The KRG on the other hand can leverage the situation by increasing oil and natural gas exports directly to Turkey. While the energy sector was, for now, excluded from the sanctions Turkey has to consider it a future possibility. Iraqi Kurdistan could also become a larger outlet for Turkish agriculture, not only domestically but as a conduit to the rest of Iraq. With charter flights stopped between Russia and Turkey Iraqi Kurdistan could act as an intermediate transfer point for Russian tourist still wishing to go to Turkey or Egypt.
The historic animosity between the Kurds and Turkey not withstanding Russia is a visitor and Turkey is a long time resident of the region. If the Kurds can take advantage of the current strife they can accomplish a good deal, not only politically but economically. Playing off US and Russian politics a great deal can be achieved, but it will require a unified Kurdish front.
While this is all speculation none of it will be possible as long as ISIS exists to threaten the Kurds. This is where the US and the rest of the west needs to come in, direct support both in arms and boots on the ground, to push ISIS back and secure Kurdish land. Supporting the Kurds in northern Iraq while allowing Russia to support the Iranian back Shi’a in Baghdad with the ultimate goal of the destruction of ISIS, at least in Iraq, will be accomplished. Of course this will mean the final acceptance on the part of Washington that Iraq in its present form is not a viable country. And that is a big problem for Washington.
The recent acknowledgement by the US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dunford that ISIS is not contained and the announcement by Secretary of Defense Ash Carter that the US is sending more troops to the region is an apparent step in understanding the situation. What is important is that Sec. Carter mentioned support not only to Iraqi security forces but to the Peshmerga, indicating it is a separate entity in the fight and will receive separate assistance. Both conceded that US forces would act without concern for borders.
Recent activities are likely behind the change in US policy. Russia’s moves into Syria and it more recent increase in land forces have paid a significant role in US and NATO reaction to the region. The attacks in Paris upped the concern in Europe, especially with France Germany and the UK. The shoot down of the Russian plane was a trigger event setting off what is now transpiring.
Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the President of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C.
