by Nawzad Mahmud
Holding an independence referendum in the Kurdistan Region this year would give the Kurdish parties a stronger voice in Baghdad, especially in the face of a growing Shiite alliance ahead of the Iraq’s next elections.
The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in their recent bilateral meetings have discussed that an independence referendum will be held before next April’s Iraqi parliamentary elections, Rudaw has learned. They have also discussed the possibilities of reaction from Baghdad and the escalation of pressure on the Kurdistan Region.
“We have postponed the question of whether or not to participate in the next Iraqi elections until after the referendum is held,” a high PUK official who didn't want to be identified, told Rudaw.
“If the PUK and KDP settle the question of the referendum together, they along with other parties in Kurdistan will settle the question of whether or not to participate in Iraq’s next elections,” the official added.
A KDP politician says his party is convinced that the Shiites are preparing to form a political majority for the next Iraqi parliamentary elections. He thinks this will lead to an “autocratic government.”
Ardalan Nuradin, an Iraqi parliamentarian with the KDP, believes boycotting the next Iraqi parliamentary elections is an “open possibility” for the KDP. He says that it is “because of this that the KDP has not responded to Baghdad as to whether it will refill its vacant positions in Baghdad.”
“The KDP alone has left more than 20 positions in Baghdad, and has several times ignored Baghdad’s calls to refill them,” Nuradin explained. “The KDP believes the presence of the Kurds in Baghdad will be weak if the Shiites form a political majority.”
Until now, only the KDP has broached the possibility of not taking part in the next Iraqi parliamentary elections.
“This question has not been formally discussed. But I think the Kurds will participate in the election again this time,” said Zana Rustaye, an Iraqi MP with the Islamic Group.
“The KDP from time to time talks about not participating (in Iraq’s next parliamentary elections). But even the KDP will participate (in them) if the Kurds do not move toward independence this year, for it doesn't have any other choices,” Rustaye added.
He says there is a way for the Kurds to not participate in these elections, and that is if “the referendum is held, and if all parties in Kurdistan decide together to not participate in them.”
The Kurds have been taking part in all Iraqi elections since Saddam Hussein was overthrown in 2003. Now, however, the ruling Kurdish parties are seriously considering boycotting Iraqi elections for the first time.
“If Baghdad approves the result of Kurdistan’s referendum, the international community will welcome it too, and the process to declare a state will therefore be quick. Then, the Kurds won’t need these elections,” Musana Amen, head of Kurdistan Islamic Union bloc in the Iraqi parliament, said. “However, we will still have some interests in Baghdad, which would be lost if we don't participate in these elections.”
Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has not yet received a decisive response from Kurdish President Barzani as to whether he will refill vacant KDP positions in Baghdad.
In Kurdish President Masoud Barzani’s meeting with the delegation sent to Erbil by Muqtada al-Sadr on April 22, Barzani and his KDP intentions became clear: These positions will remain unfilled until the political future between Erbil and Baghdad is decided.
“This referendum will decide our future with Baghdad. Violating the practice of consensus, resorting to the majority and minority considerations has disintegrated the foundations of state in Iraq. Hence, the KDP, after the referendum is held, will seriously discuss whether or not to participate in Iraq’s next elections,” Mahmud Mohammed, the KDP spokesperson, previously had said.
“This referendum will decide our future with Baghdad. Violating the practice of consensus, resorting to the majority and minority considerations has disintegrated the foundations of state in Iraq. Hence, the KDP, after the referendum is held, will seriously discuss whether or not to participate in Iraq’s next elections,” Mahmud Mohammed, the KDP spokesperson, previously had said.
Sadr’s Movement has 34 seats in the Iraqi parliament. It is a member of the Shiite National Alliance that also includes Abadi's Dawa Party.
Barzani, the KDP, and the Sadr Movement are staunchly opposed to former PM Nouri al-Maliki making a return to Iraqi politics and governance.
In the last Iraqi parliamentary election in 2014, KDP took 25 seats, the PUK 21, while the Gorran Movement took 9.
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