ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - As Israel and Iran intensify their strikes deep into each other’s territories, a former US nuclear negotiator warned on Monday that hopes for renewed diplomacy with Tehran are fading rapidly, citing fundamental deadlocks and escalating military action.
Alan Eyre told Rudaw's Shahyan Tahsin that Israel's campaign - targeting nuclear, military, and now energy infrastructure - has effectively neutralized Iran’s air defenses and left the US on the sidelines, watching a conflict it has so far refused to join unless directly attacked.
“Israel now has total control of Iranian airspace or major control. So yes, the US administration perhaps believes that diplomacy is still possible,” Eyre noted, adding the talks could face obstacles as long as hostilities continue between Iran and Israel.
“They [Israel] have rendered neutral Iran's air defenses. And so they have liberty to bomb pretty much whatever they want for as long as they want,” he said.
The Israeli army and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have claimed almost full control of Iranian airspace.
According to the former diplomat, the core deadlock in nuclear talks between Washington and Tehran lies in opposing red lines: Iran insists on continuing uranium enrichment within its own territory, while the United States maintains that Iran must not be allowed to enrich uranium on its soil.
Eyre explained that the Fordow nuclear installation would be the hardest for Israel to destroy without help from US missiles which can reach the required depths of the infrastructure, stating this is one of the reasons Israel wants the US involved in the hostilities.
The Fordow nuclear installation is an underground uranium enrichment facility located near the city of Qom in Iran. Built deep within a mountain to protect it from airstrikes, Fordow is considered one of Iran’s most fortified and secretive nuclear sites.
“The question becomes, can they drop enough bombs on Fordow to take it out of action? Even if it does, don't forget that Iran, eventually when Israel stops bombing, Iran might well choose to rebuild whatever nuclear installations have been destroyed, and they can rebuild them at deeper levels,” he explained.
“So far, the United States has said that it will not participate in these attacks unless Iran were to target the US or US forces in the region. We'll see if that still happens.”
Regarding the US pulling out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement during Trump’s first term, Eyre noted that Tehran was not violating the agreement but Trump wanted to instill his maximum pressure on the country - a move he said the president had a right to make but in retrospect was a mistake.
Eyre, first-ever Persian language spokesperson of the US Department of State, was involved in the previous nuclear talks with Iran.
According to the former US diplomat, the recent escalation is not part of the maximum pressure campaign.
“This is totally separate. This is Israel deciding after months and months and months of planning to attack Iran so it does not have to live any longer with what it perceives, what it thinks is the existential threat of one day Iran having nuclear weapons,” he said.
“It's clear that there was no imminent threat, even though Iran has a lot of highly enriched uranium, which can be used to make nuclear weapons. There was no indication, at least according to United States intelligence, that Iran was seeking to weaponize its uranium to build a nuclear weapon. And even if that were the case, it would take a considerable period of time to do so.”
Iran’s nuclear energy provides the country with 1% of its power, Eyre said, stating that the country has spent a lot of resources on it and that Iran’s elites would not like to let it go as it would be a sign of weakness.
The conflict escalated sharply after Israel launched a large-scale strike on Friday, killing several senior military commanders and key nuclear scientists. In response, Iran fired hundreds of missiles and drones at Israeli targets, escalating the conflict significantly.
According to Israeli authorities, so far at least 24 civilians have been killed and 592 injured.
In Iran, authorities reported 224 people killed and 1,277 injured, though the government has not specified how many of the casualties were civilians or military personnel. Human rights groups, including the Washington-based Human Rights Activists, said the Iranian government’s figures are likely understated. The group reported more than 400 deaths, including 197 civilians.
