Will sanctions, suspended arms sales halt Turkey’s Syria offensive?

ERBIL, Kurdistan Region – With US forces set to completely withdraw from northern Syria, ceding the defense of their erstwhile Kurdish allies to the Syrian regime and its Russian and Iranian backers, few means are left available to pressure Turkey to halt its offensive bar sanctions and arms embargoes.

France and Germany joined The Netherlands, Norway, and Finland in suspending arms sales to Turkey as a means of pressuring Ankara to halt or at least soften its offensive against Syrian Kurdish forces. 

“Against the backdrop of the Turkish military offensive ... the Federal Government will not issue any new permits for all military equipment that could be used by Turkey in Syria,” Germany’s Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said Saturday.

Florence Parly, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, issued a similar statement on Saturday. 

“Pending the cessation of the Turkish offensive in North-East Syria, France has decided to suspend any plans to export to Turkey war materials that could be used in the context of this offensive. This decision is of immediate effect,” she tweeted.

Nevertheless, European military hardware, including Leopard tanks, has been used to fight the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), who until last week was the West’s key ally in the ground war and counterterror effort against the Islamic State group (ISIS). 

It is also unclear how much of a dent the suspension will put in Turkey’s arsenal. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), Turkey imports 60 percent of its weapons and hardware from the US, which has not joined the embargo. 

Turkey also has a burgeoning domestic arms industry and is gunning for complete self-sufficiency, and could easily shop elsewhere – namely Russia – to make up any shortfall.

“A number of European Governments have curbed future sales to Turkey – although in most cases, as far as I can tell, this will not impact existing sales,” Andrew Smith, spokesman for the UK-based Campaign Against Arms Trade (CAAT), told Rudaw on Monday.

“The symbolism is important, but it’s hard to say what practical impact this will have on the ground. Turkey’s domestic arms industry has grown over recent years and it will already have a lot of weapons already,” Smith said.

“That being said, the UK absolutely should follow suit. It has licensed over £1 billion worth of weapons to Turkey since President Erdogan came to power in 2014. These arms sales should never have been allowed in the first place and similar deals should not be allowed to take place going forward,” he added.

Unless the US, Britain, and other major arms suppliers get on board, an embargo is unlikely to force Turkey to change course in Syria.

This leaves the option of sanctions and tariff controls on Turkish goods and assets, which the US used to great effect when pressuring Ankara to release American pastor Andrew Brunson last year.

US President Donald Trump, who has faced bipartisan rage in the US for greenlighting the Turkish offensive by abruptly withdrawing US troops from the Syria-Turkey border, has threatened to “devastate” the Turkish economy if Ankara’s behavior in Syria crosses his vaguely defined red lines.

On Sunday, Trump said he is closely following developments in Congress, where Republicans and Democrats are devising a sanctions package against Turkey.

Republican Senator Lindsey Graham teamed up with Democrat Chris Van Hollen on Wednesday to introduce legislation designed to impose far-reaching sanctions on Ankara.

Any agreed package is expected to freeze all US assets of Turkey’s political leadership and impose sanctions on entities that do business with Turkey’s military or with oil and gas companies that service its armed forces.

“Dealing with @LindseyGrahamSC and many members of Congress, including Democrats, about imposing powerful Sanctions on Turkey,” Trump tweeted Sunday.

“Treasury is ready to go, additional legislation may be sought. There is great consensus on this. Turkey has asked that it not be done. Stay tuned!” he added.

Graham, who has been one of the loudest critics of Trump’s perceived betrayal of Syria’s Kurds, hailed the president’s support for sanctions.

“Good decision by President @realDonaldTrump to work with Congress to impose crippling sanctions against Turkeys outrageous aggression/war crimes in Syria,” Graham tweeted.

“I applaud his decision to work with Congress to stop Turkeys aggression in Syria through crippling economic sanctions,” he said. “This decision by President Trump will be a game changer — in all the wrong ways — for Turkey,” he added.

Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has also turned up the heat, telling ABC in an interview on Sunday the US is “ready to go at a moment's notice to put on sanctions”.

Mnuchin said the sanctions “could be starting small, they could be maximum pressure, which would destroy the Turkish economy”.

If the US sanctions hammer falls, Turkey’s foreign ministry says Ankara will reciprocate in kind with its own sanctions and tariffs.

“No one should doubt that Turkey will respond tit-for-tat to possible US sanctions,” said ministry spokesman Hami Aksoy, according to Turkish state media.

Washington has already threatened its NATO partner with a raft of sanctions under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) after Ankara purchased the Russian-made S-400 missile defense system – a rival to America’s Patriot system.

The US says the Russian system is not compatible with NATO hardware and is concerned the purchase could compromise its new F-35 fighter jets – which Turkey helped build.

Trump had stalled the imposition of sanctions when relations appeared to warm between the US and Turkey over a proposed ‘safe zone’ and joint patrols in northern Syria. Now that Turkey has moved unilaterally in Syria, CAATSA sanctions could be back on the table.