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US Airforce B-52 Bomber flies during a military exercise in Lithuania, June 16, 2016. Photo: AP
ERBIL, Kurdistan Region - A research project launched on Tuesday has criticised leading militaries for significantly under-reporting data on their contributions to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as delegations including Iraq continue to negotiate global targets for keeping global warming to 1.5 degrees during the second week of the COP26 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Glasgow.
The collaborative Military Emissions Gap project by the Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS) and UK-based Lancaster and Durham universities has thrown the state of military GHG emissions open, publishing the world's biggest arms spenders and military emissions data reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and calling for greater action to reduce emissions.
In a highly contentious exclusion from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, militaries across the globe have been so far exempt from reporting emissions data and committing to targets to reduce GHG emissions - a matter that CEOBS have called on governments to address by committing to meaningful military emission cuts by COP27, supported by Human Rights Watch (HRW), citing the increasingly destructive impact of emissions on the lives, health, and livelihoods of people globally.
During the project’s launch at the COP26 “Arctic Basecamp” in Glasgow, United Kingdom, on Tuesday morning, panellists discussed the current flaws in military emissions reporting, stressed the importance of widening the scope of reporting to cover emissions created across the cycle of conflicts, and called on militaries across the globe to take action to address the destructive consequences of their supply chains: both during conflict, and in the aftermath.
The Pentagon has warned of the security risks the changing climate poses. Last week, NATO Secretary General and former climate envoy Jens Stoltenberg told an audience at COP26 that the world's armies must keep pace with global efforts to tackle climate change and cut their huge carbon footprints, recognising the considerable impact of the military on global emissions.
Scientists have estimated that militaries account for up to 5% of global emissions; more than civilian aviation. US military spending leads the world in terms of expenditure per capita, and research in 2019 showed that if the US military were a country, it would be the 47th largest emitter of greenhouse gases in the world.
According to data from a project at Brown University, since the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, the US military has emitted 1,212 million metric tons of GHG. Indeed, if the US military was a nation state in the Middle East, it would rank as the region's eighth-largest emitter of greenhouse gases.
The US military has been continuously involved with Iraq for over three decades, since Saddam Hussein launched his invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Discussing the impact of emissions sources in conflict on Monday’s panel, CEOBS’ Eoghan Darbyshire made the staggering point that the 1991 Gulf War contributed to 2% of all global CO2 emissions that year, with the US burning 727 oil wells and destroying other infrastructure in the region.
A 2010 study found that the early years of the 2003 US invasion produced around 600 million tonnes of CO2 emissions; a statistic that may appear irrelevant compared to the direct cost of war, but contributed to severe long-lasting consequences on the country’s environment, such as air and water pollution.
In addition, Darbyshire told the audience that the post-conflict phase of military involvement often sees even greater emissions, with rapid surges caused by weak governance, outmoded infrastructure, the huge carbon cost of reconstruction, and an increase in deforestation as people turn to alternative methods for fuel and provisions - as well as a deliberate tactic of war.
The Kurdistan Region’s Forest Police and Environment Directorate told Rudaw last May that over 4,000 dunams of land had been burned by Turkish bombardments in Duhok province since January; environmental degradation resulting from the Turkey-PKK conflict. Last week at COP26, Turkey joined more than a hundred countries in signing an agreement to combat deforestation, although it has continued to cut trees in Kurdish-populated areas at home and in the Kurdistan Region.
During the Islamic State (ISIS) war, environmental destruction was a deliberate tactic, with the group burning and destroying farms, pouring oil down wells, and setting fire to a chemical plant in Qayyara, southeast of Mosul, resulting in deaths and hundreds of respiratory issues. Amnesty International has reported on ISIS’ attack on Yezidi land in Sinjar, destroying farms and rendering areas uninhabitable; a legacy that prevents the return of many thousands of survivors today.
According to Darbyshire, the intensity of gas flaring dramatically increases during periods of conflict, with Syria, Libya, Yemen and Iraq responsible for 15% of all global flaring emissions. This summer, the Kurdistan Regional Government took steps to stop flaring associated gas, giving oil production companies in the Kurdistan Region 18 months to put a complete end to flaring.
As they scramble to increase pressure on COP26 delegates, charities have warned of widespread water crises in Iraq and estimated that current climate policies could cause a 64% GDP hit to vulnerable countries. In a report published on Monday, Christian Aid estimated that even if the world limits heating to 1.5 degrees, countries on the front line of climate change - including Iraq - face reductions in GDP of -13.1% by 2050 and -33.1% by 2100. More obviously, when oil is “net-zeroed” out, many predict that middle eastern economies are set to collapse.
The European Union’s EEAS Climate Change and Defence Roadmap is a first - and limited - step towards integrating climate change into the defence actions of the EU, but the Military Emissions Gap hopes that greater visibility will increase public pressure on other military organisations, including the US. The team wants this latest data (or lack thereof) to increase transparency, accountability, and action. “What they do not count, we can’t see. And what we cannot see, they will not cut”, three academics involved in the project wrote on Tuesday.
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