Russian and Turkish involvement pushes Syrian Kurds into more isolation

BRUSSELS, Belgium - Kurdish isolation in the world has only deepened as the growing refugee crisis and Russia's military intervention in Syria compel estranged partners Turkey and the EU to try to patch things up, analysts say.

The European Union muted its criticism of Turkey's new war against the Kurdish PKK guerrillas and its bid to sideline the Western-backed Kurdish PYD rebels in Syria when it hosted talks in Brussels on Monday with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

Instead the talks focused on how the two sides could bridge their differences and cooperate in a way that could ease the refugee crisis in both Turkey and the EU as well as tackle perceived threats from Russia against NATO member Turkey.

"Erdogan gained a lot of sympathy from the Europeans," Joshua Walker, an analyst with the German Marshall Fund, told Rudaw.

"All the statements from the secretary general of NATO (Jens Stoltenberg) and European leaders were that we stand with Turkey against Russian aggression," Walker added.

Stoltenberg told reporters in Brussels that Russian violations of Turkish airspace in recent days did not appear to be an accident.

The West has also accused Russian warplanes of targeting Western-backed opposition forces rather than Islamic State and other jihadists as Moscow seeks to shore up its ally Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.  

"Unfortunately I do not think there is any gain for the Kurdish leaders because it actually makes the Kurdish hand much weaker than it was before," Walker said.

"Before the only (opposition) fighting force that really represented any future in Syria was the Kurdish force. Now, suddenly the Russians have gotten involved and suddenly the Kurds do not look as strong as they used to be," he said.

"There is no real champion right now for the Kurds," Walker said.
It is too soon to tell whether the intense flurry of diplomacy between Brussels and Ankara will fix the relationship.

"The question is what can Erdogan do by being there in person that will give the appearance that this is not the death of the EU-Turkish relations but it is the beginning of a new life,” Walker said.

Walker added that Erdogan is hoping the worst refugee crisis since World War II will lead to better cooperation and "that they will find reasons to work together."

The bilateral relationship has suffered for years over European complaints of human rights abuses in Turkey and the stalling of negotiations for Ankara to become an EU member.

"But now the refugee issue could actually provide a new momentum and a new perspective because that is an area where a lot of collaboration will be needed,” Sinan Ulgen, chairman of the Istanbul-based EDAM think tank, told Rudaw.

During his visit, Erdogan tabled a number of demands including the setting up of a no-fly zone in northern Syria which would be designed to protect Syrian civilians from Assad's air force but which critics fear is designed to check the influence of the PYD group.

He also asked for EU financial assistance to help deal with 2.2 million refugees in Syria and commitments to give Turks visa-free travel in Europe. He also sought reassurances on the accession process.

Ulgen and Walker agreed that the EU will unlikely meet Erdogan's demand for a no-fly zone as he tries to limit PYD influence there even though both Ankara and the Kurdish group share the goal of ousting Assad.

"The Russian airplanes make it even more complicated,” Walker said.

"What happens if you have a no-fly zone and Russian airplanes fly right through it? Do you shoot a Russian airplane? That would start world war III,” the Marshal Fund analyst warned.

Walker even questioned the request of president Erdogan for a safe zone.

"The big question is, if you do not want Kurdish forces to be there then you substitute with someone else. Is it going to be Turkish forces? Is it going to be moderate Sunni forces? We do not have moderate Sunni forces anymore.”

Ulgen agreed with Walker and explained: "President Erdogan decided to include these sets of demands for two reasons: one to underline that there cannot be a permanent solution to the refugee problem as long as the crisis in Syria is not settled; the second reason is to strengthen his hand in the negotiations concerning the other demands that he had to get, which are free visas for Turks and the accession process."

Hugh Pope, director of communications at the International Crisis Group in Brussels and a longtime analyst on Turkey, told Rudaw "It is always good that both sides are talking again but the fact is that neither side is in a great position."

He cited Russian planes testing Turkey's southern border, the two million refugees still in Turkey, and big EU-Turkish divisions, and an EU accession process that was virtually suspended.

"Turkey feels insecure and wants to be treated seriously by Europe," Pope said.

He was reluctant to say it was "doom and gloom," because there is an important relationship between Turkey and Europe that is often overlooked.

"We are in a rough patch but it does not mean to say that Turkey and Europe are going to be at each other's throats or anything," he said.

There are also differences under the surface over the Kurds.

In his press conference with European Council President Donald Tusk, President Erdogan said, "Daesh is a terrorist organization and so is the PYD and the PKK," even if the PYD is fighting Daesh.

He added: “I wholeheartedly believe that our European friends will show the necessary sensitivity to this point.”

"Although the EU countries recognize the PKK as a terrorist organization we are sad to see that with some countries this is not the case, at least in practice."

Walker said "it is going to be very critical for Erdogan to get certain European leaders that he accuses of supporting the PKK to stop their support" in the run-up to key Turkish elections next month. "That (support) can be anything from TV stations in Denmark to Kurdish sympathizers, PKK sympathizers in Germany or Sweden.”

Walker said Erdogan is carrying out a tough balancing act by showing fellow Turks he is tough on the PKK but "he also has to reassure his NATO allies that he is equally committed to fighting Daesh."

Ulgen said: “I do not think his position on equating PYD to Daaesh has a lot of support within Turkey.”

He added that this talk is essentially for domestic purposes because there is now a cycle of violence with the PKK.

Meanwhile, peace remains elusive within Turkey.

Pope commented, “both sides cannot reach the goal that is wanted by most people in Turkey which is the continuation of the country as a pluralistic joint project between the Turks and the Kurds.

"And each time they miss the chance to make peace the terms of the peace deal change and become more difficult and that it is a problem restarting the peace talks.”

He said the new outbreak of violence that began on July 20 is very serious because it is in the towns, unlike in the previous outbreak from 2011 to 2013, when it was in the mountains. The toll of this violence in the past two and a half months is already at one-third of the total number of 928 people killed during the previous outbreak.

"It is a tragedy because I think if anything has been proved in the last 30 years is that neither side can beat the other. So whatever it is that is happening is unfortunately delaying the inevitable political compromise that has to be made,” Pope said.