Boris Johnson acted ‘unlawfully’ – so what now for Brexit?

Nothing is quite what it seems in British politics, but things can turn on a sixpence. Take a recent incident at a hospital where Prime Minister Boris Johnson was confronted by a new father whose very ill 7-day-old daughter had been kept waiting for urgent treatment. 

The father blamed the PM and accused him of exploiting the hospital for press publicity. Johnson oddly claimed the press was not there – despite the fact they were clearly filming the exchange. But he also said he is committed to investing in health. The two minute exchange went viral. Johnson has been rounded on by voters elsewhere, but I suspect people perhaps grudgingly respect a PM who takes his chances with public engagements rather than set-piece rallies without public questions.

Johnson remains well ahead in the public’s estimation of his leadership abilities and his party is streets ahead of the opposition, with one poll putting the Liberal Democrats slightly ahead of the largest opposition party, Labour. 

And the mood music seems to indicate that the EU and the UK are limbering up for a deal that starts with the recognition of Northern Ireland being treated differently. If so, and if Johnson can minimise rebellions on his own side and maximise them on the Labour side, he could get it passed in the House of Commons. As ever, there are many ‘ifs’ in that sentence, but it could mark the beginning of the end of the palpable war-weariness surrounding Brexit in Britain.

If (that word again) Johnson were to pull it off, he could win an election which would be less dominated by Brexit. Alternatively, he could suffer the same fate as his hero Winston Churchill, who did so much to win the Second World War for which the nation was grateful, but not so grateful as to reward him with victory in the July 1945 election. 

Brexit wouldn’t vanish because any deal on the terms of withdrawal would trigger long negotiations on a longer-term deal on trade. That will determine how much the UK would be economically aligned to the EU and how much independence it could have to conclude its own trade deals. And that raises issues of labour, consumer, and environmental standards as well as fiscal policies on which a more classic left-right divide could emerge.

If there is no deal and an election is called before Brexit is carried out the calculations become much more complex. The Conservatives would nervously look over their shoulders at the hardline Brexit Party, which favours a clean break, no deal exit. Johnson would have to either accommodate them or defeat them with his main argument being his hands are tied and he needs a big majority for the next stage of Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats recently adopted a position that a majority LibDem government – highly improbable – would revoke Brexit on day one. That unique selling point has the merit of simplicity and shoring up their position as the chief recipient of the 48 percent of those who voted Remain. It is hardly a democratic position, because the 52 percent vote for Brexit would be trumped by a lesser vote on a wider range of issues. Yet it could help them challenge and even overtake Labour. 

The LibDems were boosted by a successful conference. Labour’s conference seemed less likely to produce a bounce after a botched plot to unseat its elected deputy leader and keeper of the social democratic flame exposed deep divisions. 

Labour showcased radical measures such as a shorter working week and decarbonization to tackle the climate emergency, but others seem to trespass on private property rights, which may rebound against them for voters and for domestic and international companies. I’d been thinking that the conference was unlikely to give Labour any bounce, but the annual gathering ended early with a Corbyn speech that wowed the party faithful – though how much of that travels is to be seen.

The conference ended early because the Supreme Court suddenly and surprisingly ruled unanimously that Johnson acted unlawfully by suspending parliament for longer than normal. Parliament will now reconvene, and I am not sure what will happen to the Conservative conference.

This trenchant legal ruling forcing the return of the Commons is seismic and its longer term impact could be profound if it gives an impetus to the demands for a written constitution. In the meantime, I doubt if it makes much difference to the parliamentary battle over Brexit, short of an unlikely prime ministerial resignation or a successful vote of no-confidence. Labour won’t trigger that while there is any danger it could lead to a no-deal departure.

Parliament has already got its way in insisting that the Prime Minister sues for an extension of the deadline for departure to avoid a no-deal if the UK and the EU fail to agree one at the European summit in a few weeks.

The coming business of the Commons is so far unknown, but MPs will roast Johnson over the legal ruling and demand sight of government proposals. My view is that the government should negotiate such deals before parliament is asked to consent. 

The government has not tabled any formal papers to the EU because they are circulated to all 27 EU capitals and leaked. If I were a minister, I would outline general principles but refuse to give a running commentary on private negotiations until a deal is agreed. It is an open question as to whether such a new deal is doable.

UK politics is on the horn of many dilemmas. We agreed to leave the EU without any idea of what we were doing. We cannot ignore the referendum result but don’t need to commit hara-kiri by leaving without a deal, burning our bridges, causing needless disruption, and spending years in acrimonious bilateral and multilateral deals. 

Dear Reader, we are in continuing crisis, friends of the UK despair, and our deep-seated problems remain unaddressed. The government is weak in Westminster but seems strong in the polls, but things may yet turn out not to be as they seem. Expect a huge amount of turbulence when the Commons returns and the possibility of radical departures in the coming weeks and months.

Gary Kent is the Secretary of the All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG) and a Fellow of Soran University. He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity. The address for the all-party group is appgkurdistan@gmail.com.

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.