Will demonstrations lead to the Iranian regime’s collapse?

Demonstrations taking place in numerous towns and cities in Iran have once again raised the following questions: will the protests put an end to the existing Islamic Republic of Iran? Why is it that in the majority of Arab countries, demonstrations are a factor in the collapse of the governments, but in Iran they don’t bring about change?

In the past 40 years, no country or regime in the region, or even the world, has faced as much civil unrest and protests as Iran.

The people of Iran have poured onto the streets dozens of times, with or without guns, speaking against their regime since the foundation of the Islamic Republic. As a matter of fact, none of them - even those supported by Mojahedin-e-Khalq Organization (MEK) or the Kurdish parties of Iranian Kurdistan – have been able to make a single change.

There are plenty of reasons why demonstrations end in dispersal – here, I will address four of them.

First, during its forty years of existence, the Islamic Republic has acquired the necessary experience to know how to control the frequent, recurrent protests.

It has been many years since Iranian authorities have not had to worry about protests. The government's intelligence and armed forces remain united. They know when they will need to use force to block the fury of the people, and when they are able to simply observe events without worry. When a protest takes place, the Iranian government knows who should be put in jail and removed from the streets, knows how to manipulate media against the angry protesters, and knows how to tarnish the image of demonstrators by accusing them of blasphemy.

Second, protests have even become a factor in the government's survival in the past 40 years.

After any wave of demonstrations, the security forces target hundreds of civil activists, creating an atmosphere which forces them to either flee the country, or remain and live under intense security agency scrutiny. Such developments will make activists with the ability to lead protests go away. Therefore, reform seekers and young leaders with the ability to lead are either behind the bars or living in exile.

When you speak with Iranian figures of authority, many of them share the view that in a country with no free media or opposition voices, demonstrations are as important as oxygen is. They say protests should happen once every few years, to indicate the scale of popular anger and to show who has emerged as a civil leader. If demonstrations don’t occur for a long time, the government may no longer know how to control them once they reoccur.

A third factor contributing to the demise of protests is the strategic thinking of Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, who believes that bowing to the slightest demands of the protesters will mark the early stages of the collapse of the government. Thus, no protests have succeeded in getting the government to revoke any decree it has made. When Mir-Hossein Mousavi brought four million people to the streets of Tehran in 2010 to reject election results, Khamenei did not even agree to a vote recount.

The protests of the past few days were ignited by a tripling of fuel prices by the government. Many high-ranking Iranian officials criticized the move - including many lawmakers, who have tried to push the government to renege on the decision by introducing a bill in the parliament. Again, Khamenei did not agree to accept the protesters' demands, reiterating his support for the government decision.

A high profile Iranian official told me that if the government is forced to take a single step back under protester pressure, then it will be made to go back a further hundred steps "by kick" from the protesters. That is why the government must insist on its decisions and not heed to the demands of protesters, no matter how small.

Fourth, even though Iranian regime supporters are of no match to the number of government opponents, the former are far more willing to sacrifice their lives for their government compared to the relative lack of steadfastness protesters show against it.

The minority who throw their support behind the government of Iran are ready to do anything in order to keep the regime in power. On the other hand, very few protesters are ready to sacrifice their lives when protesting against the government.

When you hint at the miserable conditions of the people of Iran, they always have the same response - it does not matter how many people are against the state; what matters is how many of them are willing to take to the streets.

By Mohammed Bakhtyar

Translation by Zhelwan Z. Wali

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.

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