Despite the death toll in Gaza surpassing 500 souls and a military operation that is threatening to become a full-fledged war, the international community remains silent over Israel’s indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets in Gaza.
Some western analysts and policy-makers are hopeful that a ceasefire can be reached based on previous agreements that ended Israeli incursions in Gaza in 2009 and 2012. Given the current dynamics, however, a ceasefire will be far more difficult to achieve this time around.
Hamas is now much weaker and isolated, and the international community — particularly Europe and the US — is less vocal in its criticism of Israeli aggression. As a result, there are fewer credible mediators compared with 2009 and 2012, leaving Hamas with few options other than to escalate the current crisis with Israel.
For the past decade, together with Hezbollah, Syria and Iran, Hamas was a key member of the so-called "Axis of Resistance." Its close ties to Iran and Syria have provided Hamas with crucial strategic, political, logistical and financial support.
The Arab uprisings, however, have changed everything. After siding with the opposition in the Syrian civil war, Hamas cut its ties with Damascus and quit the Axis of Resistance. Its anti-Assad stance weakened its ties to Iran as well.
Hamas lost another crucial ally in 2013 when the Egyptian military ousted President Mohamed Morsi, an Islamist, and replaced him with a bitter adversary, Gen. Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. Egypt under Sisi has tightened a crippling blockade on Gaza including closing tunnels, which are vital lifelines for Gaza.
Hamas’ decision to reach a reconciliation agreement with the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) in April could have helped Israeli and western efforts to marginalize Hamas. The agreement could have offered Gaza breathing room by easing border restrictions, paying civil servant salaries in Gaza and weakening Hamas’s base. But it failed due to lack of support from the west.
Thus once again, the people of Gaza find themselves in a desperate situation whereby Hamas and conflict appear to be the only way out of the unbearable status quo. The west’s muted response to Israel’s disproportionate use of force and the targeting of civilians — in violation of international humanitarian law —only add to frustration among the people of Gaza.
US policy is unlikely to change anytime soon. The Obama administration, which played a critical role in securing the ceasefire in 2012, is now preoccupied with Iran and is not willing to risk the political capital it has invested in the nuclear talks for Gazans. In addition, Obama might remain quiet on the civilian death toll in Gaza to stave off opposition from Congress and the Israeli lobby in Washington if he were to press Israel for a ceasefire.
In the past, Turkey was able to serve as a mediator because of its ties with Hamas and Israel. However, the relationship between Turkey and Israel has been strained since eight Turkish nationals were killed in the 2010 Israeli attack on flotillas carrying humanitarian aid and supplies to Gaza.
Elsewhere in the region, divisions have always hindered the Arab states’ ability to react to Israeli offensives and the Arab uprisings have further complicated the issue for Arab leaders. The Muslim Brotherhood’s electoral success in post-Mubarak Egypt was a stark reminder that the party has deep roots in the Muslim world despite strong opposition by Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries.
Many Arab leaders seem satisfied that the Syrian conflict and the military coup in Egypt have weakened Hamas. They therefore are unwilling to defend Hamas against an Israeli offense.
Those who are hopeful that an imminent ceasefire between Hamas and Israel is around the corner have to understand that this time, both the options and negotiators required to resolve the conflict are in short supply. Recognizing the human suffering in Gaza and condemning Israel’s indiscriminate attacks against civilians could be a good start in persuading Gazans that a political solution might still be possible.
Gonul Tol is Executive Director of the Center for Turkish Studies at the Middle East Institute.
