Those who voted six months ago to have a new government will have to wait a bit longer: All indications are that the new Kurdistan Regional Government will be formed after the Iraqi general elections. Apart from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), none of the political parties in Iraqi Kurdistan seem to be in a rush to assemble the next government.
The back-and-forth of the ongoing talks for the next government seem to be stuck on power-sharing and post allocations among the various political parties. But with every day that passes, it is becoming more apparent that the two largest parties are stalling, waiting for the general elections in Iraq. The reason is that both expect the ailing PUK to completely finish, or win a lot less votes than the last election in Kurdistan.
PUK’s fragmentation and internal problems today, and its inability to tackle the issues that led to its slide to Kurdistan’s number-three party, are expected to stay the same -- or even worsen -- by the next election. This means that the PUK will lose further votes to its rivals in the next election.
With this reality in mind, none of the two parties -- Kurdistan Democratic Party or Gorran -- is in a hurry to have a government. The KDP is expecting an even weaker, or disintegrated, PUK in the next election and this will make it more comfortable to deal with the new strategic interlocutor, Gorran, as far as the green areas of Kurdistan are concerned.
The Change Movement (Gorran) also does not seem to be in a hurry for a government for two reasons: First, the PUK's bad shape, and the movement's confidence that every vote the PUK loses is going for Gorran. This is in addition to the governorate elections in which Gorran seems confident to win the Sulaimani council. Both elections will give Gorran a much stronger bargaining position in negotiations for the government formation. It will also allow them to negotiate the whole deal as a package, both in Baghdad and Erbil.
The other reason Gorran is not in a hurry is that a strong part of the party’s rhetoric during the election campaigns was directed against the KDP-led rule. If Gorran enters government with the KDP before the elections, it will have difficulty in repeating the same rhetoric in the next election campaign. This was, and still is, one of the main points they used in previous elections against the PUK.
Other opposition parties are in the same position as Gorran. They are also waiting in hope of getting some of the votes that the PUK will lose.
Today, nobody stands to lose anything by delaying the government formation until after the next election. The only party that will lose a lot is PUK. If it does not fundamentally address the issues that led it to where it is today, it runs the risk of becoming the fourth party, or even disintegrating.
Hiwa Osman is the CEO of mediawan.me @hiwaosman
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