Window on Westminster

British politics continues its rollercoaster ride towards the 2015 general election whose result seems more uncertain than normal.

For nearly a century the pattern has been that governments usually win a second term so Labour shouldn't stand any chance of winning. It has a soft lead in the polls but its position has barely budged since its defeat three years ago.

People haven't warmed to its leader, Ed Miliband whose credibility as a potential Prime Minister remains low. Labour is also hampered by a widespread notion that it cannot be trusted with the public finances.

If voters think that their taxes will be frittered away they may plump for the Conservatives who are often seen as uncaring but competent. An improving economy would allow the Conservatives to successfully ask people to stick with them and finish the job.

But many new variables in the electoral equation challenge this pattern. The two-party system may be imploding under the continuing pressure and popularity of the UK Independence Party (UKIP).

UKIP appeals to those who are sceptical of or hostile to the European Union (EU) and mass immigration, largely from the EU. This has caused resentment among those who have been left by the wayside as global competition tears through traditional employment. So far, UKIP has mainly attracted Conservative votes, although they could swipe more Labour and LibDem votes.

The Prime Minister, David Cameron promises to renegotiate the terms of EU membership and hold a referendum in four years time. It is an open question whether other members of the EU will accept an 'a la carte' Europe where the UK opts out of measures that provide a level playing field for the single market.

But there is a further paradox. Europe may be unpopular but it is not such a burning issue with the voters as it is for Conservative activists and MPs. Cameron once warned his party  that "banging on" about Europe would be electorally damaging. The focus on the EU is seen as divisive and a distraction from more pressing economic concerns.

The senior Conservative MP and grandson of Winston Churchill, Nicholas Soames comments: "So thin appears to be the trust that not even the PM’s word [about the referendum] is accepted by members of his own party and I find that in a way frankly offensive. You concede a yard and immediately that is jumped on as not being enough and they want more. I think it is a lunatic way of proceeding and the public will look at us and think they don't know what they are doing."

Nonetheless, many Conservatives keep banging away to wrest back dissatisfied voters from UKIP or because they are profoundly antagonistic to EU membership. The trouble for party managers is that the Conservatives don't exclusively control this government which is shared with the strongly pro-European Liberal Democrats and have resorted to ingenious ways of undermining the UKIP threat.

Conservative backbenchers recently tabled a highly unusual amendment to the vote on the Queen's Speech, the main expression of the Government's own programme, regretting the exclusion of legislation in this Parliament on the proposed referendum. They didn't win but secured the support of 130 out of 650 MPs.

Now another vehicle for focusing on a referendum has emerged. There is an annual lottery for Private Members' Bills, theoretically the only way in which backbench MPs can initiate legislation. The Conservative winner has adopted a Bill, drafted by Cameron, but which the Conservatives cannot formally table because its partners object. The Bill will be officially supported by the Conservatives but not by the coalition.

Conservatives hope that backing the Bill could curb the UKIP tide and calm the nerves of anxious MPs, even or perhaps especially if it is defeated by Labour and the LibDems.

It seems likely that the EU controversy, which has divided the Conservatives for decades, as it used to deeply divide Labour, will not fade away. Some Conservative grandees and probably most activists favour withdrawal but Cameron's position is to reform the EU and then recommend that the UK stays in.

The prospect of new membership terms and an in/out referendum keeps them in the same boat for now but tensions between reforming or quitting the EU may deepen.

The Conservatives must find a way to satisfy their supporters without alienating the voters they need to win power by themselves. The dilemma is that continuing concessions to anti-EU sentiment could weaken Cameron's authority because governments also need to show that they are masters of their fate rather than merely buffeted by the winds.

In these circumstances, Labour could buck the trend and scrape into office on about a third of the vote, which would be a meagre mandate. The major parties have everything to play for but nobody knows how this rollercoaster ride will end.

* Gary Kent is the administrator of All Party Parliamentary Group (APPG). He writes this column for Rudaw in a personal capacity.