The Turkish military is prepping for an all-out assault to rid Afrin of YPG fighters whom Turkey claims are an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a designated a terrorist organization in Turkey and the United States. Not to be naïve — we accept that there is a connection between the YPG and the PKK, even if it is only philosophical. Even if it were more, the YPG has never operated in Turkey nor shown any inclination to do so. When the Syrian Kurds have engaged the Turks or their Free Syrian Army partners, it has been in Syria and it was defensive. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said in no uncertain terms that he is going to attack what he considers terrorists on its border. Holding him back is the protection being afforded the Kurds by Syria and Russia, as well as support from the United States. The questions that need be answered now are: Will Russia allow Turkish air support, and will the United States help protect the mostly-Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) by providing air defense missiles? Turkey is currently in Moscow negotiating for the right to violate Syrian airspace that is under Russian protection. The Syrians have already said that they will attack any Turkish aircraft which violate Syrian borders, and with their Russian made S-400 anti-aircraft missiles can easily range Afrin. Add to this the unconfirmed report that the United States supplied the YPG with shoulder-launched, anti-aircraft missiles known as MANPADS. Further reports, which the United States has denied, are that the YPG has also been provided with Javelin anti-tank missiles. Hopefully Turkey understands that while on paper they can overwhelm the Kurds, it will be a very bloody affair. Unlike Operation Euphrates Shield, which the Obama administration tacitly accepted even though the attack was in part against US backed forces, the conditions are different. Today ISIS is gone and there is no direct threat to Syrian forces other than remnants of opposition rebels. Unlike in 2016, the US has recently committed to maintaining forces in Syria and to a “Forever War” if needed to meet US objectives. US foreign policy has been sending mixed signals to the region. On one hand, it says it will stay in Syria to protect US interest, Washington then says it will not directly help the Kurds in Afrin, the No. 1 ally of the United States in its fight against ISIS in Syria. While still supporting the Syrian peoples desire to rid them of Assad, the United States has no effective plan to support the rebels. The US further confuses the issue by trying to block Turkish aggression while at the same time trying to mend fences with Turkey. For the prior administration of Barack Obama, the US had a feckless foreign policy in regard to the Middle East and the Kurds. To date this administration of Donald Trump is not doing much better. Afrin can change that. Supporting the YPG and the desire of Syrian Kurds and standing up to the Turkish dictator and saying enough, will go a long way in repairing the reputation of the United States — not only in the region, but around the world. Afrin must be defended, and the will of the people allowed to decide the future. Paul Davis is a retired US Army military intelligence and former Soviet analyst. He is a consultant to the American intelligence community specializing in the Middle East with a concentration on Kurdish affairs. Currently he is the president of the consulting firm JANUS Think in Washington D.C. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of Rudaw.
